O crude veio à base do canal ascendente e teve uma boa reacção.
Os dados dos inventários (ver notícia em anexo) saíram abaixo do esperado e isso ajudou a cotação ir reagir à recente correcção. Vamos ver o que os próximos dias nos reservam, mas uma ida aos 46,50 ou mesmo aos 45 dólares não deve ser excluída.
O importante é ter em conta que estamos com uma tendência de alta de longo prazo no crude e que estas correcções são normais.
No final deste post deixo dois gráficos do Crude (um diário e outro semanal).
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Crude up as stockpile increase disappoints
By Kevin Morrison and Darryl Thomson
Published: November 10 2004 11:30 | Last updated: November 10 2004 20:53
Crude futures jumped after a weaker than expected rise in US crude inventories and another fall in distillate inventories rekindled concerns about fuel supplies over the winter period.
The Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US department of energy, said US commercial crude oil inventories rose 1.8m barrels to 291.5m barrels and now stand 1.4m barrels less than year-ago levels.
US distillate supply fell for the eighth consecutive week heading into winter heating season, despite a sharp rise in refinery crude runs and a slight drop in demand, the EIA said.
The fall in distillate, which includes heating oil and diesel, came despite an increase in refinery runs as many US refineries increased output following the seasonal maintenance period in the month of October.
The EIA said US refineries ran 15.4m b/d of crude in the week ended November 5, up 443,000 b/d from the previous week.
Refiners ran at a rate of 92.6 per cent of operable capacity, up 3.2 per cent from the previous week.
However, there was a surprise drop in crude imports by 181,000 b/d to 10.5m b/d, the EIA said.
This fall comes amid concern of oversupply in the oil market in recent weeks with Opec producing at their highest level in 25 years and output from the US Gulf of Mexico returning to nearly 90 per cent of operational capacity following the effects of Hurricane Ivan in September.
The area of most concern was the US heating oil stocks, which fell 100,00 barrels to 48.4m barrels, or 21 per cent lower than a year ago.
December Nymex WTI settled $1.49 higher at $47.37 a barrel in New York, reversing earlier losses.
Prior to Wednesday's session, the benchmark US crude futures contract had fallen about 13 per cent since reaching a peak of more than $55 on October 25.
IPE Brent for December delivery advanced $1.04 to $44.75 a barrel in London, marking a turnround following the release of the US inventory report.
Earlier in the day, oil markets were digesting the latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency, the watchdog of the OECD.
The IEA said that rising world oil supplies, and signs that the higher costs of energy were hurting economic growth, led it to believe crude's climb was over.
"Barring any major unforeseen developments, oil markets should continue to ease heading into and out of winter," the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report.
Oil stocks in industrialised nations rose by 560,000 b/d in the third quarter and will rise by 1.3m b/d in the fourth quarter if Opec supply remains at current levels. The oil cartel boosted output by 215,000 b/d to 30m b/d in October, the IEA said.
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