The bear market that started from the heights of enthusiasm in 2000 peaking at 1500 on the Standard & Poor's 500 index is still intact. Despite periodic bouts of enthusiasm and counter trend rallies the trend is still down.
We had some news today about Iraq, that Baghdad may soon fall… we shall see… after the war gets out of the way I think we shall soon have to face the fact that the excesses of the 1990s have not been played out. I believe I heard Larry Ellison of Oracle say that up to 1000 companies on the NASDAQ would likely go bankrupt… -that sounds about right… and something that I have been saying for some time, including yesterday. And while some stocks on the NASDAQ would appear to be bullish the index on the whole is still rallying underneath a neckline on the index at approximately 1480 as is the s&p 500 with its neckline at 954.
“Major bull markets spawn major bear markets…” –dv
We remain short and are inclined to believe that strength should be sold...
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