Aí está o NDX a quebrar em fecho a zona dos 1.632 pontos e abrir caminho para uma aproximação aos 1.731 pontos.


De seguida apresento 3 gráficos actualizados. Além do diário da praxe e mais dois semanais onde identifico outros tanto padrões com projecções em alta de médio e longo-prazo para consideração futura, que penso ir agradar quem tem convicções mais bull.

Gráfico Diário


Em relação aos semanais...



Primeiro temos um triângulo ascendente com uma ousada projecção a 1961 pontos... (amplitude do triângulo = 1.632-1303 = 329 pontos)

Embora a prazo da formação exceda o que é considerado a média, penso ser de ter em conta esta projecção. A formação identificada obedece a outros requisitos para que a possamos qualificar como triângulo, facto que permite alguma flexibilidade na análise.

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Definição de triângulo ascendente retirada do stockcharts.com:

The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation.

Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more equal highs form a horizontal line at the top. Two or more rising troughs form an ascending trend line that converges on the horizontal line as it rises. If both lines were extended right, the ascending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending down from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. Let's examine each individual part of the pattern and then look at an example.

Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the ascending triangle is a bullish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important. The robustness of the formation is paramount.

Top Horizontal Line: At least 2 reaction highs are required to form the top horizontal line. The highs do not have to be exact, but should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be some distance between the highs, and a reaction low between them.

Lower Ascending Trend line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower ascending trend line. These reaction lows should be successively higher and there should be some distance between the lows. If a more recent reaction low is equal to or less than the previous reaction low, then the ascending triangle is not valid.

Duration: The length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months.

Volume: As the pattern develops, volume usually contracts. When the upside breakout occurs, there should be an expansion of volume to confirm the breakout. While volume confirmation is preferred, it is not always necessary.

Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that resistance turns into support and vice versa. When the horizontal resistance line of the ascending triangle is broken, it turns into support. Sometimes there will be a return to this support level before the move begins in earnest.

Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and applying it to the resistance breakout.

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O segundo padrão, identificado a amarelo, é um formação conhecida por Broadening descending Wedge que foi activada no fecho da semana passada e que cujas implicações bullish estão agora a ser confirmadas (falta o fecho de hoje). Projecção na casa dos 1.700/1720 pontos.

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Definição, agora retirada do site marketscreen.com:

What it is

The formation looks like a megaphone tilted down. Two down-sloping trendlines outline the price action. Both trendlines slope downward, with the lower trendline having a steeper slope. Thus, the two lines broaden out over time. Neither trendline is horizontal. The formation requires at least two distinct touches at each trendline.

Statistics

Percent of successful formations – 81%

Average rise of successful formations – 46%

Likely rise – 20%

Failure rate - 37%

Average time to throwback completion – 11 days

Trading tactics

Compute the formation height by taking the difference between the highest high and the lowest low in the formation. Add the result to the breakout price to achieve the target price.


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Ficaram as projecções para ir consultando no futuro.

Nota: As quebras dos resistências nos gráficos semanais ainda está muito fresca, no primeiro gráfico ainda nem podemos confirmá-la uma vez que a semana não acabou. É ncessário que a ruptura em alta tenha seguimento nas semanas que se seguem e que as resistências passem a funcionar como suporte....


Como orientadoras de posições longas para prazos mais alargados, tenho nos meus gráficos semanais as ema de 26 e 52 semanas.
Enquanto os fechos semanais se mantiverem acima destas linhas e não se verificar um cruzamento negativo entre as mesmas, não podemos considerar que a tendência de alta dos últimos 2/3 anos está em causa...


Opiniões?


Cumprimentos
Francisco Monjardino
www.clubeinvest.com