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Don Stott

You all remember the old song, don't you? (Actually, if you are pre-menopausal, you might not!) At any rate, this little gal is singing that she is "Tying the leaves, so they won't fall down, so the wind won't blow them away..." (It's a 1959 song). In other words, summer is flying past, all to quickly, and those leaves are falling to the ground. Harsh winter is coming, and she wants to postpone it if she can. I agree. The last leaves are falling here where I live, and it was a bit below freezing this morning. The mountains 30 miles away have a lot of snow already, so we must face it. Winter's here. I love summer, find spring and fall hopeful and peaceful, and dislike winter totally. At least we only have a few inches of snow here all winter.

Then there's another poem, by who, I don't know, part of which goes, " The leaves mustn't fall, oh no, they mustn't fall. I'm tying the leaves so they will stay. I've lost my Mom and Dad, now sister's all I have. Don't let the falling leaves take her away." The point is that when fall comes, winter can't be far away. We all plan for winter. Some store up wood to burn to keep warm. We check our anti-freeze, put thinner oil in our crankcases, and even place snow tires on our rims. We can't keep winter from coming, so we prepare for it. There's no way to stop it. We can go to Florida or Arizona and be one of the hated "Snowbirds," which tie up traffic, but up north, winter's coming.

Picture poor Alan Greenspan, who will retire soon. Poor Alan. Sir Alan, if you please. Like the rest of those in DC, who have even a slight bit of intelligence, they know that winter's coming. Economic winter that is, and there's not a damned thing they can do about it. They can tell us about the huge growth in the GDP, as an example of tying the leaves, so they won't fall. Of course that GDP increase, is certainly the government spending on various items such as the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, plus the tens of thousands of goons hired to make you take your shoes off at airports and rummage through your luggage before you can board a plane. Then there is FEMA, who has spent hundreds of billions with no end in sight. Homeland Security is another huge bureaucratic blunder, costing hundreds of billions. But they tie the leaves, by telling us that the GDP growth is a rosy sign, rather than government out of control.

They tie the leaves, by faking the death rate of American soldiers too. According to the "official" death figures, if they were true, it would be far safer to be a soldier in Iraq, than to live in Washington DC! Does anyone believe government figures? Then they attempt to forestall the harsh economic winter, by deciding not to any longer publish the M3 figures. "They look pretty bad, so we'll just not publish them any longer. This will keep the sheeple happy and postpone winter,"...they hope. Since the M3 can be ignored and the deaths in Iraq faked, they hope with all their might, that economic winter can be postponed.

A few years ago, those in the know thought that gold and silver were being manipulated. You remember, when gold was at $258, they manipulated it to keep it under $275. Didn't work, so they tried to keep it under $300 at all costs. "Well, we've got to keep it under $325, because that would be bad if it got over $325." "Well, at all costs, we'll sell what little we have, (they didn't have any), manipulate the futures markets, and keep it under $350." "We've just got to stop this gold going up, because it threatens the dollar." "My god, it's going up to $375, isn't there something we can do to stop it?" "$400 gold? You must be kidding. Can't anyone tie it down, stop it, fake the figures or something? This runaway gold could be a threat to our sacred dollar! Keep it under $400." Now that it has reached $500, can you imagine what the wags in DC are saying to themselves? Can you imagine the fright, horror, and possibilities of $500 gold, and the possibility of the gold-silver ratio going back to 16 to 1? With $500 gold, and a ratio of 16 to 1, silver would be over $31. They not only don't have any gold, but they have no silver either. All they've got is B.S. and the printing press.

Alan dearly hopes he can take his morning bubble bath, and be retired and at a semi-peace before winter comes in earnest. He hopes his morning tub won't be interrupted by Andrea opening the door and saying, "Skip the bubbles Alan, the whole thing is coming down, just like the World Trade Centers."

If you find yourself in an economic jam, as undoubtedly tens of millions now do, what do you do? You think to yourself, "What assets do I have, and what avenues do I have to save myself?" Do you have credit card reserves? Do you have home equity, things that can be sold? Do you have a way of cutting expenses? Borrowing at low interest? There are basically three things, which someone can do it an economic storm hits. Economize, sell, or borrow. There may be others, but a sound-minded person, will explore his options, and do something to save himself. What can Alan and the DC gang do? Economize? Fat chance! Economy, is an unknown word in the DC lexicon.

Borrow? Of course. They do it all the time. They have borrowed and borrowed and borrowed so long, that the lenders are getting bit edgy now, and are cutting way back on their lending. In other words, loans are getting harder to sell. Just like a person attempting to buy a house with bad credit. They won't be able to get a mortgage, because the lender won't loan to them. The lenders around the world, who have been loaning to the US government, are getting scared, and are slowly ceasing lending. They can't stop suddenly, because they have so much equity already, that they can't risk a sudden collapse. Our credit is bad and getting worse, so the lenders are slowing down...understandably.

Sell? What is there to sell? The National parks? The US government has nothing it can sell to tide it over an impending economic horror story. It won't economize, and its lies and bluff are coming home to roost. There are no ways to stop a harsh winter from coming, and tying the leaves hasn't worked. Unfortunately, the public as a whole, isn't aware of winter coming. The stock market is up far more than it should be. That won't last, of course. Richard Russell still says that gold and the Dow will cross at 3,000, and that old man has been correct about 99% of the time. Obviously, they can't keep the price of gold and silver down. If they have been "manipulating them," they have done a poor job. I know they have tried, but how can one keep a physical, tangible, beautiful, historic wealth, down by manipulation?

If there is a "Plunge protection team," as there seems to be, they have done a fine job. They, plus the basic stupidity of the sheeple, have managed to get the Dow close to 11000, which is a silly as can be. It should be about 7000 and declining. I know, December is always a month that is good for the stock market. Wait till January and February, when winter's with us full force. This means economic decline. Will it happen this winter? Who knows? Not me, but you cannot build a solid foundation of a building with tons of paper. Paper is what is holding the US economy together, and that is a sorry thing with which to hold anything together, believe me. Paper is weak. Paper burns. Paper is only as good as the issuer of it. A clear title or deed is pretty good paper. Paper money backed by nothing, is Monopoly Money, which is valuable only as long as the game continues. The game will be over eventually. Someone will get hotels on the greens and yellows. The other guy will land on Pacific, and the game is over. All the Monopoly money will be put back in the box, the board folded, and the property deeds stacked together. The game will be over. Monopoly Money will is good only as long as the game is being played, and the economic game of the Fed and DC cutthroats, is about over. Who will tell the masses? Who will warn of an oncoming severe storm? Who will tell them that tying the leaves to the trees will not prevent winter? Protect yourself.

December 2, 2005

Don Stott has been a precious metals dealer since 1977, has written five books, hundreds of columns, and his web site is www.coloradogold.com