Intel stock dips on narrowed forecast

Intel's stock took a hit when it lowered the higher-end of its revenue forecast.

December 8, 2005: 7:18 PM EST
By Amanda Cantrell, CNN/Money staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Intel's stock dipped three percent in after-hours trading following the company's mid-quarter report, in which the chip maker narrowed its fourth-quarter forecast, but analysts say the decline shouldn't be construed as a sign that something is fundamentally wrong with the company.

"You're going to see Intel sell off tomorrow as it did after hours, but it's more an unwinding of some speculative positions than an indication of some structural disappointment," said Cody Acree, an analyst with Stifel, Nicholus, pointing out that the company indicated that consumer demand for PCs and notebooks is about what the company expected for the quarter. "Intel is such a proxy for the market that if their stock drops" people think the company must have announced lower-than-expected sales or demand, said Acree. "That's not necessarily the case here."

Chip maker Intel (Research), considered a bellwether for the semiconductor industry and tech stocks as a whole, tightened its earlier forecast for fourth quarter revenue, saying it now expects fourth quarter revenue to fall in the range of $10.4 billion to $10.6 billion. The stock closed yesterday at $24.92

 
"The results are consistent with the outlook (we announced) in October," said Andy Bryant, Intel's chief financial officer. "Growth in emerging markets, demand for (notebook computers) and demand in manufacturing are delivering healthy growth in Intel's revenue."

The midpoint of the revised range still falls just shy of Wall Street expectations. Analysts were expecting $10.6 billion in revenue, above the mid-point of Intel's guidance, and $0.43 per share, according to a Thomson First Call survey. Intel revised an earlier forecast predicting revenue in the range of $10.2 to $10.8 billion.

The numbers proved disappointing to investors with already high expectations, especially in light of recent positive news from Texas Instruments and National Semiconductor. Yesterday, fellow chip maker Texas Instruments also tightened its forecast, but its revised figures fell toward the higher end of its previous range, sending shares up about 3 percent in after-hours trading.

The company said it expects earnings of 38 cents to 40 cents a share on revenue of $3.56 billion to $3.7 billion, narrowing its previous target of 36 to 40 cents per share on revenue of $3.43 to $3.72 billion.

Meanwhile, shares of National Semiconductor rose 2.5 percent on news that its latest quarterly earnings handily beat expectations. The company posted net income of $114.7 million, or 32 cents a share, on revenues of $544 million, beating Wall Street earnings forecasts of $0.27 per share.

Intel's revision may disappoint some analysts. Within the last two weeks, Deutsche Bank, Bear Stearns, and Citigroup have said they expect Intel to raise the mid-point of its revenue forecast from the current $10.5 billion mark, according to a Dow Jones report.

Investors and analysts have set high expectations for Intel. The company's stock stumbled when it released third quarter numbers, despite in-line revenues and better-than-expected earnings, because fourth quarter guidance did not live up to expectations.

The company warned at the time that it over-shipped during the third quarter as computer makers stocked up on inventory in anticipation of tight supply of chip sets, the pairs of chips that surround every microprocessor that goes inside a PC. Because of this buildup in inventory among computer makers, demand would be lower in the fourth quarter, according to the chipmaker.

Bryant indicated that fourth-quarter shipments are slightly below normal for the season, but he indicated demand is what the company expected it would be. He added that Intel has gotten some relief on the supply constraints from third-party manufacturers, but he expects it to be an issue into next year. That is also when it will start putting its chips into Apple computers for the first time.

Strong demand for notebook computers has contributed to the chip set supply problem. The company has also faced increased competition from rival Advanced Micro Devices in the market for server chips. While Intel still maintains the lion's share of the market for server chips, Bryant acknowledged that if AMD ships as many units as it says it will, Intel will lose some market share.

Intel also revised its expectation for gross margin, a key measure of profitability. The company expects it to be 63 percent, plus or minus a point, while the previous expectation was 63 percent, plus or minus a couple of points.

Capital spending is expected to be below the midpoint of $5.9 billion, plus or minus $200 million.

"if you were a longer-term investor, this was an as-expected call," said Acree. "It doesn't change any of the real investment thesis."