Boas,


Não sei se te recordas de um pequeno comentário (chamada de atenção) sobre a minha necessidade de capital ( a minha urgência em realizar mais valias na JDSU) para aproveitar a oportunidade que eu estava a detectar na ELN.
Pois é     esta menina já vai em +30% de valorização. Só espero que a justificação para este foguete seja o que eu estou a pensar, pois se é ela não vai parar por aqui.

Bons Negócios

sobre-OLHO

Deixo-vos aqui um pequeno gráfico....

 Caros amigos

Aqui têm mais uma opinião sobre ELAN CORP...

Ken Kam, co-founder and chief executive officer of the amateur investor tracking and analysis service Marketocracy, recommends buying the American depositary receipts for shares of Irish biotechnology and drug delivery company Elan.

There are two ways to look at the performance of Elan's ADRs in 2005: They were down 48.9% over the entire 12-month period, but they gained better than 365% off of their March 31 low of $3.00 per share. Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) closed Tuesday at $14.01.

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Elan lost nearly 90% of its value early in 2005 when it pulled multiple sclerosis treatment Tysabri off of the market in February after the deaths of two patients who had taken Tysabri in conjunction with another drug from Elan's partner, Biogen Idec (nasdaq: BIIB - news - people ), and developed the rare but sometimes fatal brain disease, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML).


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Even after Elan has more than quadrupled in value in the past nine months, Ken Kam believes it's still a good buy since, he says, Tysabri is coming back. On Nov. 17, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted Tysabri "priority review" status, which means that a decision on the drug's return will be rendered within six months instead of the usual ten months.

Kam, who has a background as an entrepreneur and manager in the medical products industry, says two factors that should help Tysabri are that no patients taking just Tysabri came down with PML, and that existing drugs to fight multiple sclerosis don't work for 25% of MS patients. For those 100,000 or so patients in the U.S., Kam says Tysabri can greatly improve their quality of life.

These facts, according to Kam, mean that there is no good reason to withhold Tysabri from this group of patients. He says the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will use this as their justification for returning Tysabri to the market as a monotherapy with a big "black box" warning about the risk of PML on the label.

"Wall Street is beginning to agree that Tysabri will return, but Merril Lynch and Citibank both recently reiterated their sell recommendations, both citing their belief that Tysabri will be hard to sell to physicians and MS patients until the risks of PML are better understood," says Kam, who views the pessimism as a buying opportunity, especially in light of heavy "tax-motivated" selling toward the end of last month by people who held it early in 2005 and have "huge losses."

"Lets look at Tysabri from the perspective of MS patients," says Kam. "For the 100,000 that are not on any MS medication right now, the choice boils down to this: Tysabri can cut your risk of relapse by 50% without making you feel as if you always have the flu. There is a 0.1% risk of contracting PML if you use Tysabri in combination with other immunosuppressive drugs, but so far, no cases of PML have turned up in patients who took Tysabri alone. To put this risk in perspective, a recent study showed that the mortality risk for aspirin is 0.2%. So an MS patient who is comfortable with the risks of taking aspirin, ought to be comfortable with the risk of taking Tysabri.


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"Wall Street expects that Tysabri sales to these patients will be a slow ramp, but, if only 25,000 of them start to use Tysabri, they would generate over $600 million a year of sales, 50% of which would go to Elan," says Kam, who also sees potential for treating the other 300,000 MS patients in the U.S. with Tysabri.

"One of the common side effects of competing drugs is constant flu-like symptoms. If you caught the flu this winter, you know how miserable it can be. Imagine how it would affect your life if you had the flu all the time. That is what life is like for many of these 300,000 MS patients. An important fact I noted from the clinical trial data and interviews with MS patients is that Tysabri does not seem to give MS patients these same flu-like symptoms.

"For this reason, many of the other 300,000 MS patients who endure these flu-like symptoms may switch to Tysabri, even if it means they have to stop taking their current drugs. If 10% of these patients switch to Tysabri, it would mean an additional 30,000 MS patients that Wall Street is not counting on. So, the potential market for Tysabri may be more than twice as big as Wall Street is expecting," says Kam, who adds that he is beginning to hear of MS patients on existing therapies who have stopped dosage to clear their bodies in time for Tysabri's likely release date in the early spring.

"The FDA granted Tysabri a priority review, so a decision is due by March 26, 2006," says Kam. "We'll see soon enough whether Wall Street is right. If I'm right, Wall Street is in for a big upside surprise."

sobre-OLHO

PS: Continuo dentro da JDSU... mas como cenário não está bem definido no curto prazo, está dificil opiniar sobre ela...

 Deixo-vos aqui mais um pequeno gráfico para os mais interessados...

sobre-OLHO

Viva caro sobre-OLHO!

Parece-me bem embalada! Meteu a sexta e aí vai ela

rafa