Mais uma sessão em que se nota a força compradora!

O anterior máximo dos futuros nos $543 foi ultrapassado sem apelo nem agravo. O metal dourado está  nesta altura acima dos $546 (futuros deFEV06) e é capaz de não ficar por aqui.

Vamos ver o que o que vai suceder a partir da 17:00.

Para já o Cartel não está a conseguir impôr o duplo topo (que muitos esperam, e provavelmente não vão obter). Mas a sessão ainda não acabou.

A PRATA parece estar na expectativa de ver o que tudo isto vai dar. Se o duplo topo no OURO não se verificar, penso que vamos ter uma bela valorização pela frente. Para já, no gráfico horário, é visível um potencial H&S invertido já com o ombro direito concluído apenas faltando a quebra da neckline. Target: cerca de $9,60.

Nas acções destaque para a Novagold (NG) que quebrou a resistência dos $9,55. Está a cotar acima dos $10 com uma valorização superior a 8% e forte volume.

A DROOY está a testar a sua LTd.

O índice XAU está apenas a 5 pontos do target que adiantei. No gráfico mensal é visível a relevância da zona dos 145 - 150 pontos.

Deixo aqui o gráfico horário da PRATA com o H&S invertido que referi no post anterior:

Grande sessão dos metais preciosos nos futuros da COMEX.

Tanto o OURO como a PRATA fecharam muito próximo dos máximos da sessão.

O OURO fechou nos $551,30 (máximo nos $551,40) e a PRATA nos $9,28 (máximo nos $9,295.

Temos portanto um novo máximo no OURO sendo que na PRATA assistiu-se também a um novo máximo, mas com o fecho a coincidir com o anterior máximo intradiário do passado dia 12 de Dezembro. Gostava que o fecho tivesse sido acima desta anterior resistência, mas não se pode ter tudo. Assim, temos que esperar pela próxima(s) sessão(ões) para ver se consegue evitar o duplo topo.

Mas a avaliar pelo comportamento do OURO, deve seguir rumo aos $9,60.

Olá meu caro Paciente,

Sinceramente já estou arrependido de não ter entrado no Ouro nos finais de Dezembro, teria sido o meu primeiro negócio no XAUUSD, mas no entanto vejo que o Ouro neste momento continua bem forte com um canal ascendente no gráfico de 4 Horas...

Bastante interessante... Bem mesmo assim tarde demais para eu entrar na corrida.

Boas Tay00,

Esse é o problema de muito boa gente. Não entraram quando o OURO quebrou os $450, depois nos $500 pensavam que era aí que o OURO iria parar e ficaram a ver a banda passar.

Até aos $540 foi um tiro. Tivemos então aquela correcção orquestrada pelo Cartel e apesar do OURO ter tido uma violenta queda foram poucos os que aproveitaram essa oprtunidade de entrar abaixo dos $500. Muitos analistas achavam que o metal viria aos $480 ou mesmo aos $450.

Depois foi o que se viu: novos máximos, retest ao anterior máximo e actualmente assiste-se a uma feroz luta aqui entre os $540 e os $550, com o Cartel em sérias dificuldades e a lutar bravamente para manter os $550 intactos.

O que é importante reter é que o Cartel está a perder (já perdeu?) o controle do mercado do OURO. Se os $550 forem decisivamente quebrados temos a possibilidade de, no curto prazo, chegar rápidamente aos $570 e quem sabe às imediações dos $600. O potencial de subida deste metal é grande uma vez que o OURO se encontra muito subvalorizado (comparativamente ao crude deveria estar a cotar acima dos $900).

Para este ano julgo que iremos ver o OURO atingir valores entre os $650 - $700. Mas como já disse anteriormente, dada a enorme posição short do Cartel, pode dar-se um movimento explosivo que fará com que todas as previsões pequem por defeito.


Abraço

A manipulação a que o OURO esteve sujeito durante quase duas décadas está, agora, a ser mais evidente.

Em início de Agosto de 2005 teve lugar, em Dawson City, uma Conferência organizada pelo GATA com vista a expôr a manipulação a que este mercado tem estado sujeito. Figuras de renome, ligadas aos mercados de metais preciosos e não só, estiveram presentes quer como oradores quer como participantes. Até um alto elemento do governo Russo esteve presente.

Este foi sem dúvida o acontecimento do ano, em termos do OURO. Uma conferência histórica, de nome GoldRush21, que expôs ao Mundo a manipulação a que este mercado tem estado sujeito.

Coincidência ou não, desde essa data o OURO arrancou decisivamente para um movimento ascendente sem precedentes. Mais importante, o OURO começou a comportar-se de forma diferente indicando que o Cartel estava a começar a perder o controle do mercado.

Para todos os que se interessam por este mercado sugiro vivamente a compra do DVD da conferência que já está disponível neste link:  http://www.goldrush21.com/.

No link indicado existe também um trailer cuja visualização recomendo.


"Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the world." ...Henry Kissinger

NOTA: money = gold

Mais um interessante comentário relacionado com o OURO retirado da internet:

"Despite being at generation highs, gold gets nowhere near the headlines and coverage of stocks like Google.

Even more glaring, the recent Fed meeting notes made absolutely no mention of gold. This neglect is striking because for the past 2,000 to 3,000 years, gold has been the best long-term indicator of inflation. Inflation, as you know, means the declining value of money. And when people realize the value of paper money is falling, they generally switch their savings from paper to gold.

When the Fed fails to mention gold when discussing inflation, it's a bit like complaining about the service on the Titanic while ignoring the fact that the ship is sinking. For if they did mention gold...The price of gold, and market forces, would become more important than Fed policy. If that happened, the most influential force in the American economy would become the government of China, which could affect the exchange rate between gold and the dollar with a bat of an eye...To acknowledge gold's importance would be to hand monetary policy over to forces outside the Fed's control. It would be the last thing any government official would want."

by Dr. Stephen Leeb

Todo o mundo quer, todo o mundo corre atrás dos amarelos e do "amarelo".

oh Pacienyte, depois da máquina das notas do FED inundar o pessoal, era sem dúvida impossível a massa não desvalorizar. Mas e o Fed, não terá percavido isso?

nunca me lembro de os chonocasm porem os olhos em bico aos americanos. Será que desta vez os amarelos andaram a lêr o livro de Maquiavel?

Cumps

Hoje tivemos uma sessão mais curta na COMEX devido ao feriado de segunda-feira.

Uma vez mais o OURO consegue um fecho semanal ($557) de grande nível. Soberbo mesmo.

Com este fecho caminha tranquilamente em direcção aos $570. Não é de excluir uma aceleração de preço durante este 1º trimestre. Com aceleração de preço quero dizer que poderá passar de uma valorização linear para uma exponencial (o topo do canal de longo prazo foi quebrado em alta o que é um requisito para passagem à fase de valorização mais acentuada, aquilo a que os americanos chamam de "run away mode").

A PRATA continua sob controle do Cartel (por mais quanto tempo?) ao contrário do OURO. Ainda assim teve hoje uma importante sessão quebrando a importante resistência dos $9,12 nos futuros. Mas mesmo no final da sessão o Cartel conseguiu fazer a cotação caír cerca de 10 cêntimos tendo fechado nos $9,165.

Tem de conseguir um fecho acima dos $9,28 - $9,29 para ficar com caminho livre para o ataque aos dois dígitos.

Ainda no sector dos metais preciosos, destaque para a Platina e o Cobre que fecharam em novos máximos históricos. O Palladium também teve uma excelente sessão registando a maior valorização destes 5 metais preciosos, um ganho de 2,31%.


Um bom fim-de-semana a todos.

Tira-me só uma duvida segunda é feriado nos Estados Unidos os mercados americanos estão fechados é isso?

Boas Piloto,

Sim. É o Martin Luther King's Day.


Abraço

ok obrigado

Tanto o índice HUI como o XAU e o GDM fecharam no máximo da sessão e da semana.

As valorizações diárias situaram-se entre os 3,18% do GDM e do XAU e os 3,68% do HUI.

Hoje registaram-se novamente impressionantes valorizações individuais e vários novos máximos (ASA, AU, GFI, GG, NEM, NG, RGLD, TRE, USGL, e WTZ).

Da minha "Watch List", com valorizações acima dos 10% tivemos a TGB, TRE e USGL. Entre os 5% e os 10% tivemos 12 (!!!) acções, a saber: CDE, DEZ, DROOY, GFI, GRZ, GSS, HL, HMY, MFN, MNG, NSU, e OZN.

Valores de fecho para os índices do sector: GDM=988,50, HUI=310,34 e XAU=141,97.


Conclusão: muito dinheiro a entrar no sector.

FUNDAMENTAL REASONS TO OWN GOLD
BY: JOHN EMBRY, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST OF SPROTT ASSET MANAGEMENT INC. & SPROTT GOLD AND PRECIOUS MINERALS FUND.


1. Alarming Financial Deterioration in the U.S.
In the space of a mere three years, the financial situation in the U.S.
has experienced a remarkable transformation. The Federal
government budget surplus has turned into a massive deficit (which
if correctly accounted for on an accrual basis would be in the trillions
of dollars), the trade and current account deficits have reached levels
which have portended currency collapse in virtually every other
instance in history, and the debt position of individuals has become
so extended that higher interest rates and/or economic recession
would be catastrophic.

2. Global Currency Debasement
Because of the aforementioned difficulties, the U.S. dollar is both
fundamentally and technically weak and is fated to fall dramatically.
However, most other countries are very reluctant to see their
currencies appreciate and will resist the inevitable fall of the dollar.
Thus, we are in the early stages of a massive global currency
debasement which will see tangibles, and most particularly gold, rise
significantly in price.

3. Investment Demand for Gold is Accelerating
When the crowd finally recognizes what is unfolding, they will seek
an alternative to paper currencies and financial assets and this will
create an enormous investment demand for gold. This phenomenon
is already well underway in gold friendly areas like India and the
Middle East but is only in nascent stages in the Western world. To
facilitate this demand, a number of new vehicles like Central Gold
Trust and Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) have been created.

4. Negative Real Interest Rates in Reserve Currency (U.S. Dollar)
To combat the economic and financial fragility in the U.S., interest
rates are being held at inappropriately low levels and with inflation
rearing its ugly head, real interest rates, at the short end of the curve,
are negative. Despite Fed Chairman Greenspan's promise of
"measured" interest rate hikes, real rates are expected to remain in
negative territory. There has been a strong historical relationship
between negative real interest rates and stronger gold prices.

5. US Federal Reserve Policies in the Event of Increased Deflationary Pressures
Fed governor Ben Bernanke has been very explicit in respect to this
issue, suggesting that the U.S. government has a printing press and
would be prepared to use it, if need be. In fact, he went so far as to
suggest that the authorities would drop money from helicopters to
avert the spectre of deflation. The validity of fiat paper money rests
upon confidence and these sorts of policies, if ever implemented,
would surely destroy that confidence.

6. Ongoing Proliferation of Financial Derivatives
The dramatic increase in the usage of financial derivatives in recent
years, many of them over the counter and thus unregulated, is
creating an unquantifiable risk element in the financial system. With
notional values well in excess of U.S. $100 trillion, this is not an
insignificant issue. It is worth noting that Warren Buffett, one of this
generation's most successful investors, refers to them as "weapons
of mass financial destruction". An adverse development on this front
would dramatically impact confidence in paper money.

7. Existence of a Huge and Growing Gap Between Mine Supply and Traditional Demand
Gold mine supply is roughly 2500 tonnes per annum. Traditional
demand (jewellery, industrial uses, etc.) has exceeded this by a
comfortable margin for a number of years, even in the virtual
absence of any investment demand. Some of the gap has been
filled by recycled scrap but Central Bank gold has been the primary
source of above-ground supply.

8. Mine Supply will Likely Decline in the Next Three Years
Even if traditional demand were to erode in the event of worldwide
economic weakness, and investment demand disappointed, the
supply-demand imbalance would probably persist due to constraints
on mine supply. Mine supply could well contract in the next several
years, irrespective of the level of gold prices, due to a dearth of
exploration in the post Bre-X era, a shift away from high grading
which was necessary for survival in the lengthy period of subeconomic
gold prices, mining practices which permanently impaired
a number of mines during the same era, and the natural exhaustion
of mines.

9. Large Short Positions
To fill the gap between mine supply and traditional demand, Central
Bank gold has been extensively mobilized, primarily through the
leasing mechanism which facilitated both producer hedging and
financial speculation. Strong evidence suggests that at least 50%
of reported Central Bank gold reserves have entered the market in
this process. This is owed to Central Banks by their counterparties
in these transactions, the bullion banks. Whether the Central Banks
ever get their gold back is immaterial to the case for gold because
the gold is gone and can't be sold again. However, if the Central
Banks were to demand that their gold be returned, it could trigger
an epic short squeeze.

10. The Central Banks are Nearing an Inflection Point When They Will be Reluctant to Provide More Gold to the Market
The Central Banks have already supplied too much already via the
leasing mechanism, a development somewhat reminiscent of the
late 60's and early 70's when Central Banks sold well over 100
million ounces in an ultimately failed attempt to hold gold in the
neighborhood of U.S. $35.00 per oz. A new generation of central
bankers appear to have learned nothing from the past. The renewal
of the Washington Agreement, permitting European Central Banks
to sell 500 tonnes per year for five years, may have been
misinterpreted by many observers. There is increasing speculation
that there will not be a sufficient number of candidates prepared to
sell to come anywhere near the maximum amount allowed.

11. Increasing Likelihood of Central Bank Gold Purchases
The Russian and Far Eastern Central Banks have been accumulating
enormous quantities of U.S. dollars in their reserves and have stated
their intentions to lessen that exposure by diversifying into other
currencies. Gold, which is regaining its status as a currency,
comprises a very low percentage of their reserves currently and is
an obvious candidate for inclusion. As a sign of the changing times,
Argentina, which was nearly bankrupted by a failed dollarization
scheme several years ago, recently announced that their Central
Bank has purchased more than 50 tonnes of gold for its reserves,
much to the chagrin of the IMF.

12. Large Increases in Outstanding Gold Derivatives Despite a Major Reduction in Producer Hedging
Producer hedging has been sharply curtailed in response to several
corporate blow-ups caused by excessive hedging, the latest involving
the Australian producer Sons of Gwalia. In addition,
underperformance by the stocks of heavily hedged producers, rising
gold prices and materially lower contangos have reduced the
incentive to hedge. So instead of producers supplying additional
gold to the market through the hedging mechanism, the reverse is
now happening. Despite this, gold derivatives, as reported by the
Bank of International Settlements (B.I.S.), have continued to rise,
suggesting either a major bet against the secular trend of the gold
price or the possibility of nefarious activity (i.e. price suppression)
in the gold market.

13. Gold is Remarkably Cheap in the Context of Oil Prices
Since gold began to trade freely in 1971, the ratio between the price
of an ounce of gold and a barrel of oil was established, and thus
created a metric by which to compare their relative values. If the
average ratio, measured over the past 33 years, were in effect today,
gold would be trading several hundred dollars higher than it is
currently. With a strong probability that high oil prices may be here to
stay, gold looks very undervalued.

14. The China Factor
Chinese citizens have very recently been given permission to buy
gold for investment. When a similar event occurred several years
ago in India, demand rose sharply. In view of the size of the Chinese
population, its rising standard of living, and its proclivity for gold, this
could be a seminal event for gold demand.

15. Gold as Money Continues to Gain Credence
Islamic nations are investigating a currency backed by gold (the Gold
Dinar), countries such as Russia, which were previously plagued by
weak currencies, are talking about fully convertible currencies backed
by gold, and the Argentine Central Bank's purchase of gold suggests
that President Nestor Kirschner may be in the early stages of making
good on a campaign promise to introduce a gold backed peso as an
antidote to the financial disaster that his country experienced.

16. Rising Geopolitical Tensions
The increasing probability of a long conflict in Iraq, deteriorating
conditions in general in the Middle East, the nuclear ambitions of
Iran and North Korea, and the ongoing terrorist threat posed by Al
Quaeda are among many geopolitical issues which could make
investors very uncomfortable. A fearful public has a tendency to
gravitate towards gold.

17. Limited Size of Total Gold Market Provides Tremendous Leverage
All the physical gold in existence is worth approximately U.S. $1.5
trillion and the capitalization of all publicly traded gold companies is
in the neighborhood of U.S. $100 billion. When the foregoing
fundamentals encourage a strong flow of capital towards gold and
gold equities, the trillions upon trillions worth of paper money will
propel both to unfathomably high levels.


CONCLUSION
Gold is undervalued, under-owned and under-appreciated. It is most assuredly not well understood by most investors. At the beginning of the 1970's, when gold was about to undertake its historic move from U.S. $35 per oz to over U.S. $800 per oz in the succeeding 10 years, the same observations would have been valid. The only difference this time is that the fundamentals for gold are actually better.

Qual a principal razão para a desvalorização da Hecla Mining nos ultimos dois anos?? pois verifiquei que esta andou em sentido contrário em relação ás sua congeneres do sector...


Obrigado

sobre-OLHO