Abraço,

Piloto!! O segundo gráfico é para ti. 

Abraço,

Não está facil de passar a linha de tendencia descendente de longo prazo parece o muro de Berlim:-\

a Drooy mais uma vez a testar a linha de tendencia descendente de longo prazo, maximo do dia $1.89

A DROOY fechou a semana passada em cima da LTd.

Hoje está a subir mais de 8% na bolsa de Joanesburgo.

Aplicando o câmbio USDZAR dá para ver que está a realizar um poderoso breakout com a cotação a equivaler a $1,997, ou seja 2 dólares.

Atenção portanto à sessão norte-americana de amanhã.


Abraço


NOTA: Já agora aproveito para lembrar que as bolsas do Canadá estão em funcionamento. Só por curiosidade, temos a GSS (+6,37%), a TRE (+5,65%), a MDG (+3,78%), a CBJ (+3,50%) e a KRY (+3,9%) a registarem boas valorizações neste mercado.

Abraço,

Perguntaste, no tópico sobre a VGZ, o que achava da DROOY nesta altura.

Ontem saíu uma notícia com a empresa a informar que teve uma queda de produção nas suas operações internacionais (fora da África do Sul).

Pelos vistos o mercado não gostou muito. Penso que o problema é que continua a ter aquela LTd pela frente que ainda não foi decisivamente quebrada (tem que o fazer no gráfico semanal) e depois tem pela frente a importante resistência horizontal dos $2,20.

Acho que é de esperar uma retracção até à zona dos $1,53 - $1,60 para alongar. Se o OURO continuar o seu movimento rumo aos $600, a DROOY acabará por quebrar a sua LTd de referência. Se o não fizer, é um claro sinal de fraqueza e indicia que existem outros problemas que ainda não são do conhecimento geral do mercado.


Abraço

Duas notícias de ontem relativa à quebra de produção na DROOY:

----------------------------------------------
DRDGold's output falls
Mon, 30 Jan 2006


Gold miner DRDGold on Monday reported that it generated gold output of 130 547 troy ounces in the December quarter, down from 135 630 oz in the September quarter.

The group's Australasian operations generated 59 140 oz from 67 920 oz due to lower output from Porgera and Emperor mines, while the South African operations had production of 71 407 oz from 67 710 oz.

South African gold output increased due to the higher attributable production from East Rand Propriety Mines (ERPM) and Crown surface operations from 40 percent to 100 percent for December, following the incorporation of Crown Gold Recoveries into DRDGold South Africa, which is 85 percent owned by DRDGold and 15 percent owned by Khuma Bathong.

The gold price received during the December quarter amounted to $497/oz from $446/oz in the September quarter, while in rand terms, the gold price received was R104 366 per kilogram from R93 559 per kilogram in the September quarter.

During the December quarter, DRDGold had two fatalities at its Emperor mine in Fiji, while its South Africa operations were fatality free.

---------------------------------------------------------
Offshore units make up fall in DRDGold's local output 
Charlotte Mathews


PRODUCTION declined in the December quarter at almost all the South African and Australasian mines in which DRDGold has an interest because of yield variations and operational issues, the group said yesterday.

But the group's overall production was only marginally lower because a change in the shareholding structure for ERPM and Crown Gold Recoveries meant that DRDGold accounted for all production as opposed to only a 40% attributable portion previously.

This followed the restructuring of the group last year into separate Australasian and South African operating entities. The group's empowerment partner, Khumo Bathong, exchanged its 60% stake in Crown and ERPM for an initial 15% in DRDGold SA, which includes Blyvooruitzicht, Crown and ERPM.

The group's attributable gold production fell 4% to 130547oz in the December quarter, of which 45% came from Australasian mines and the remainder from SA. A gold price 11% higher at $497/oz was received.

DRDGold said it had developed a new mine plan for Blyvooruitzicht, where underground gold production had been declining. This would increase overall underground production to 70000 tons a month by the September quarter.

In the December quarter, Blyvooruitzicht's underground ore milled was 152000 tons, down 12% compared with September.

The group also said it had agreed to acquire the Top Star mine dump in Selby from AngloGold Ashanti and was going through the regulatory processes before starting operations.

The dump is estimated to contain 5,1-million tons of material at an average grade of 0,78g/ton.

In Papua New Guinea, Porgera's production fell 23% because of a power outage and mining of lower yield areas. This was partly offset by a 16% increase in Tolukuma's production because of better control of underground water and a reduction in lower-grade tonnage. At the Emperor mine in Fiji, production fell 9% because of lower yield and deteriorating ground conditions.

In SA, Blyvooruitzicht's output dropped 10% because of lower underground production, and Crown's gold production fell 8% because of lower throughput stemming from equipment problems.

ERPM's total gold output declined 9% because it lost 20 production shifts from technical and labour issues, including the Christmas break, although five shifts lost in this period were worked during the September quarter.

Production falls at DRDGold

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Presenter: Lindsay Williams  Guest(s): Mark Wellesley-Wood 

DRDGold announces gold production falls 4% to just north of 4,000 kilograms (130,547 ounces) during the three months to the end of December 2005, with diverse performances from the different operations. DRDGold chief executive Mark Wellesley-Wood is on the line from Australia

LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Mark, good evening Australian time!

MARK WELLESLEY-WOOD: It is very much a good evening - I'm over here because that's where the focus is. As you correctly highlighted, the Australian operations were the poor performers in the last quarter.

LINDSAY WILLIAMS: In more general terms - looking back at a previous interview we had, you were quoted as saying: "Past events have taught us never to be sanguine - we have entered year 2006 in much better shape materially and psychologically than we entered year 2005." That was a while ago - has that relative optimism gathered momentum?

MARK WELLESLEY-WOOD: We're still extremely sanguine, and we know that one quarter's figures doesn't comprise the true feature. It would be fair to say that we did expect the Porgera West Wall - Porgera was down something like 23% on its ounces. That's the mine that's owned by Placer Dome, and it's just been taken over by Barrick. That obviously dragged the Australian numbers down slightly on these figures as they show...

LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Is Barrick's Placer Dome deal going to have any impact on this mine and yourselves?

MARK WELLESLEY-WOOD: No, it doesn't. There were no triggers for pre-emption rights, or anything like that - so nothing really happens. Obviously the management of Porgera will now feed into Barrick, and how Barrick and Placer Dome are going to combine their assets in this region, and what emphasis and focus Barrick is going to put in the future. Porgera is Placer Dome's second largest cash generator - it's a highly successful mine in the terms of creating future ounces for the gold book. I really can't see Barrick doing anything unsupportive to the future of Porgera to put it that way.

LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Elsewhere on the operational side - can you give us a quick summary?

MARK WELLESLEY-WOOD: Obviously Emperor is disappointing - we had Emperor's production reports out here in Australia on Friday, and flagged the market to continued problems with Philip Shaft. The pot of gold seems to be closer - we're getting very high grades. I know most of the commentators flick over the production reports we put out, but if you look over the exploration report for Emperor right at the back you will see significant high-grade intersections - grades and numbers in the 50 and 100 grams a ton. If this was being published by a listed exploration junior, the share price would be soaring on these results - but it isn't because everybody wants to do boring stuff and talk about production. We will address that in the future...

LINDSAY WILLIAMS: You sound slightly cynical about the way people look at your results?

MARK WELLESLEY-WOOD: Yes, we haven't got the ounces through this quarter - I'm not denying that - and the frustrations of sustainable production from the South African operations are very challenging, and it's not just DRD that's talking about this. If you read the chief executive's statement for BHP - the pressure on scarce resources, oil pressure, cost pressures - these are across the industry. In South Africa - where we're just that much more hampered with older infrastructure, over-regulation - these mines are much slower to respond. There's a very good case in point here at Blyvooruitzicht (Blyvoor). You know we re-planned Blyvoor, to take it out of risky seismic areas, and in doing that we lost a bit on grades so these results don't look so good - but equally it won the safety shield for the region for the last nine years. We are actually taking these tough decisions - do we throttle back on production and run safer operations, or do we take those risks and go for the grades and keep the shareholders happy - and it's a difficult balance!

LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Yes, it is. Can we just quickly go back to the overseas side of things - again looking back at a previous comment you said: "We don't have Eskom in Papua New Guinea or Fiji." You were talking generally about the cost of raw materials, and the cost of energy - is that still a drag?

MARK WELLESLEY-WOOD: It's still a huge drag. I've been looking at power options for Vatukoula - our latest idea is to get ethanol out of sugar cane waste, which is something that South Africa is also pioneering with Tongaat-Hulett - we are really having to come up with some innovative solutions. Fortunately at Tolukuma we're on hydro, and we are going to build a second hydro unit - so I think if we could get Tolukuma onto hydro, and Emperor on to ethanol we would actually have a Kyoto Protocol sustainable environmental and cost-effective solution to power those mines, but it's going to take a bit of time to get there.

LINDSAY WILLIAMS: On the positive side you increased production in South Africa by 5%, and the major plus - for all the miners of course - is that the gold price received was R104,366 per kilograms or $497 an ounce - do you see that continuing? I know it's a difficult question because it's out of our hands...

MARK WELLESLEY-WOOD: It's up to R110,000 per kilogram of gold today I see. If you go back to your interviews in the past I've been calling the gold price consistently pretty right - it's only the fact that obviously a lot of the gold price increases were dollar weakness. Our South African economy is very strong - as it looks as though the South African economy continues to gain strength and momentum, it's almost as though that is bidding inputs away from the mining industry. The construction sector is strong, capital investment, the public sector - and that's taking away engineering skills, taking away power - we're having to bid for inputs as gold miners, and obviously we still don't have the margins of those businesses. At R106,000 or R110,000 a kilogram we're not competing with the major construction projects in South Africa.

Muito obrigado Paciente!

Tenho acompanhado a Drooy e a sua dificuldade em quebrar de forma convincente a tal linha descendente. Penso que antes de o conseguir terá de testar como suporte o antigo máximo a 1.66 dólares...Mme 50 estava ontem a 1.62 dólares.

Abraço,

No seguimento do curto comentário publicado em resposta ao Moneymaker, abaixo deixo um gráfico actualizado até ao momento para a DROOY.

Abraço,

Abraço,

Boas Paciente,

A Drooy está numa situação perigosa do ponto de vista técnico. Ontem quebrou em baixa e em fecho a linha de tendência ascendente que era suporte de médio-prazo, estando neste momento a testar a sua média móvel de 200 dias.

Esta zona é crítica...

O que dizes?


Um abraço,

Concordo que está em zona crítica. Mas para mim tem que fechar abaixo da LTa no gráfico semanal.

É o mesmo critério que utilizei quando que ela foi à LTd, há uns tempos atrás. Chegou a quebrar essa Ltd em fecho diário mas não o fez no gráfico semanal.

Citação de: Paciente em Fevereiro 16, 2006, 17:44
Concordo que está em zona crítica. Mas para mim tem que fechar abaixo da LTa no gráfico semanal.

É o mesmo critério que utilizei quando que ela foi à LTd, há uns tempos atrás. Chegou a quebrar essa Ltd em fecho diário mas não o fez no gráfico semanal.

Bem visto! Tb gosto de ter confirmações na bigpicture....o diário pode ser enganador quando queremos avaliar sinais com implicações para médio e longo prazo como é o caso de um fecho abaixo da mme de 200 dias.


Um abraço e obrigado pela opinião!