Western Silver to be Acquired By Glamis


VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Feb 24, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Western Silver Corporation (CA:WTC: news, chart, profile) and Glamis Gold Ltd. (CA:GLG: news, chart, profile) today announced an agreement whereby Glamis will acquire, through an agreed plan of arrangement, all outstanding shares of Western Silver for a total consideration of approximately C$1.2 billion, or approximately US$1.0 billion.

Under the plan of arrangement, each Western Silver shareholder will receive 0.688 of a Glamis common share and one share in a new exploration and development company ("ExploreCo") for each issued Western Silver share. Western Silver will transfer to ExploreCo approximately C$38 million in cash, its interest in the Carmacks Copper Project in the Yukon and an early-stage exploration project in Mexico.

Based on the 20-day volume weighted average trading price for both companies' common shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange, the transaction values each Western Silver share at C$23.96 plus the value of each ExploreCo share, estimated to be C$0.89 based on the estimated book value of the assets and cash. On this basis, total consideration received by Western Silver shareholders represents a premium of approximately 40 percent.

The transaction is subject to completion of the definitive arrangement agreement, approval by Western Silver shareholders, the receipt of regulatory approvals and the satisfaction of other customary conditions. The transaction is expected to close in May of 2006.

"Western Silver's Penasquito project is a world class development asset that will significantly increase our gold and silver reserves and enhance our sector-leading growth profile," said Kevin McArthur, President and Chief Executive Officer of Glamis. "Our shareholders gain a long-term precious metals asset in one of the world's most attractive mining jurisdictions. We will be moving quickly to engage our proven mine-building team to unlock the value of this property."

The Boards of Directors of both companies and an independent committee of the Board of Directors of Western Silver have unanimously approved the transaction. The Board of Directors and independent committee of Western Silver have received an opinion from Macquarie North America Ltd. that the transaction is fair, from a financial point of view, to Western Silver shareholders. Officers and directors of Western Silver have agreed to enter into lock-up and support arrangements with Glamis under which they have agreed to vote in favour of the transaction. In the event that the transaction is not completed under certain circumstances, Western Silver has agreed to pay Glamis a termination fee equal to 3.5 percent of Western Silver's market capitalization on the date the transaction is terminated.

"This transaction provides Western Silver shareholders with a substantial premium and participation in a precious metals company with a stable of low-cost producing mines, an attractive portfolio of development properties and exciting exploration upside," said Dale Corman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Western Silver. "Glamis' development experience and skills should help ensure that Penasquito is rapidly developed for the benefit of all stakeholders."

The transaction presents a number of advantages:
- Mitigates execution risk for Western Silver shareholders in developing Penasquito;
- Harnesses a top-tier mine builder and operator with proven track record to extract value for Western shareholders at Penasquito in an accretive all-share deal;
- Allows Western Silver shareholders to participate in a company with improved gold leverage by significantly increasing Glamis' proven and probable reserves per share;
- Provides the merged company with a superior growth profile with an outstanding project pipeline and exploration portfolio;
- Adds to Glamis a high-quality, low-cost asset with a long mine life and outstanding prospects for discovery and reserve expansion;
- Builds on Glamis' growing position as a significant producer of silver;
- Maintains operations focus entirely in the Americas, with reserves based predominantly in NAFTA countries;
- Leverages experienced management with a proven track record of integrating acquisitions and creating fundamental value;
- Results in a transaction that will be accretive to Glamis' net asset value, earnings per share and cash flow per share, following commencement of production at Penasquito.

"This transaction will allow us to immediately exceed our three-year objective to grow proven and probable gold reserves to over ten million ounces," added McArthur. "Penasquito will become the next cornerstone mine in the Glamis portfolio."

Macquarie North America Ltd. acted as exclusive financial advisor to Western Silver. Orion Securities Inc. acted as exclusive financial advisor to Glamis.


About Glamis Gold

Glamis Gold Ltd. is a premier intermediate gold producer with low-cost gold mines and development projects in Nevada, Mexico and Central America. Plans call for growth from 434,000 ounces of gold production in 2005 to over 700,000 ounces in 2007. The Company remains 100 percent unhedged.


About Western Silver

Western Silver Corporation is a publicly traded mineral exploration company focused on discovering and developing silver properties in the Americas. The Company has 100% control of one of the world's largest open pittable silver-gold-zinc-lead deposits at Penasquito, central Mexico, an area with excellent infrastructure and low political risk. An independent feasibility study has concluded that Penasquito has robust economics, significant expansion possibilities and upside, and should be developed immediately. Western Silver also has an interest in the world-class San Nicolas zinc-copper project in Mexico with Teck Cominco and owns the Carmacks Copper Project in the Yukon.

Na américa, presumo q sejam ADR's, sobe "só" 25%. (WTZ)

Infelizmente n tenho, mas é "apenas" uma das q o Paciente mais sublinhou durante os ultimos meses.

É como eu digo, lendo o nosso amigo Paciente, só n ganha quem n quer!

Parabéns pelos ganhos amigo Paulo, bem mereces assim um ganho num só dia


PS - Hoje a KRY parte a resistência semanal..... Mais uma dicazita do nosso amigo!

Abraço,

CABO_Y

Mais uma grande sessão nos futuros destes dois metais preciosos.

A PRATA então teve uma semana muito boa. Mostrou sempre muita firmeza, mesmo quando o OURO se mostrava algo indeciso.

A sessão de ontem foi mais um caso típico de manipulação do preço tendo como objectivo o fecho de opções. Uma vez que se tratava de um "Options Expiry Day" houve claramente uma intenção de não deixar a PRATA e o OURO fechar acima dos strikes respectivos de $9,50 e $550. Tirando este facto, não houve uma única razão para que o OURO tivesse a queda a que se assistiu na quinta-feira, antes pelo contrário.

Mais estranho foi o comportamento das acções do sector com muitas delas a desvalorizarem substancialmente, sem que nada o justificasse. Enfim, nada a que já não esteja habituado...

Com o fecho de hoje, o OURO tem caminho aberto para um ataque ao anterior máximo. Depois temos os $600 e os $630. Na PRATA, tudo aponta para que o meu objectivo de ver este metal cotar acima dos $10 no primeiro trimestre deste ano seja cumprido.

Os fechos de hoje situaram-se nos $9,733 na PRATA (MAR06) e $561,20 no OURO (ABR06). De referir que para a semana o contrato de referência na PRATA passa a ser o de MAI06 que hoje fechou nos $9,825.

Quanto às acções, estão a recuperar bem das quedas de ontem com os índices a valorizarem, nesta altura,  entre 2% - 3%. O destaque vai para a WTZ que sobe quase 25% em virtude da OPA lançada pela GLG. Mas existem outras belas valorizações (entre 7% - 12%) em acções como a SLW, NTO, NXG, MGN, MFN, DROOY e CLG.

Boas amigo CABO,

A WTZ tem cotação na AMEX e são mesmo acções, não são ADR's. Se a OPA tiver sucesso a GLG adquire uma excelente empresa com um activo 5 estrelas que é a mina de Penasquito. Eu que sigo a WTZ há muito tempo até acabo por ter pena de esta empresa poder vir a deixar de estar cotada. Com toda esta concentração no sector (e ainda vamos a meio da procissão) acaba-se por ter menos opções de investimento no sector.

Quanto à KRY, já ontem tinha dado o sinal de entrada longa com a quebra dos $3 e forte volume. Aliás já tínhamos falado, há uns dias atrás, aqui no Fórum sobre essa possibilidade 

Na altura acho que disse qualquer coisa como: "... se a KRY quebrar os $3 vai directo aos $3,40".  Vamos ver se essa minha idéia se confirma...

Mas de facto o que interessa mesmo é o fecho semanal.


Abraço

Uma vez mais, deixo aqui mais um link de um artigo do Adam Hamilton. Desta vez uma excelente análise ao nosso querido HUI, no qual argumenta que nestes niveis é mais provável uma correcção ou consolidação do que o indice continuar por ai acima.
Eu ainda acredito num pequeno espasmo antes da correcção, mas nestes niveis toda a atenção é pouca.


http://www.zealllc.com/2006/neuthui.htm

Cumprimentos

Caro PekenoBuda,

Gosto muito das análises do Adam Hamilton. São muito interessantes as conclusões que ele tira, sempre tendo em conta o distanciamento em termos relativos das cotações face às médias móveis.

Mas convém não ler apenas um analista, por mais interessante e eficaz que ele se nos apresente. Nem sempre o que é mais provável acontece, sobretudo quando todos esperam que tal aconteça. Apesar do sentimento muito negativo que subsiste por parte de uma grande maioria de analistas, a verdade é que alguns (poucos) defendem que o HUI ainda tem muito para valorizar antes de iniciar uma correcção mais forte.

Nestes casos de indecisão o que eu costumo fazer é centrar-me na evolução dos metais. E neste momento, acho mais provável uma subida do que uma descida. Se o OURO e a PRATA iniciarem novo impulso ascendente, não me parece que o HUI se fique por aqui.

Se analisarmos bem o HUI vemos que ele fez a correcção clássica até aos 38,2% de retracement. Pessoalmente pensava que poderia vir até aos 50% (ou, num cenário mais pessimista, até aos 61,8%) mas até à data os 38,2% aguentaram muito bem e ou os metais corrigem (OURO abaixo dos $540 e PRATA abaixo dos $9,27) ou então o caminho é para cima.

Por outro lado, embora o HUI tenha fechado a semana com um ganho de 2,35%, não conseguiu fechar acima da sua MMs de 20 dias como se pode ver no gráfico anexo. E o MACD ainda não voltou a dar sinal de compra. Na minha opinião, um fecho do HUI acima dos 327 pontos abre um novo ciclo de subidas para este índice.

Outra hipótese, que já coloquei anteriormente, é ficarmos a consolidar aqui entre os $540 e os $575 no OURO. Durante esta consolidação, o HUI não faria novos máximos mas poderia vir até aos 50% de retracement.

Enfim, tudo é possível. Há que estar preparado para qualquer cenário....


Abraço

Acreditem que com até o hamilton neutro (+ pró bear, me pareceu) começa a ser-me cada vez mais difícil estar tão bull como estou!! (como se pode ver pelos meus gráficos Hui Grand Channels)

Mas o amigo Paciente e um sujeito com um sistema automático de nome SKI (ambas opiniões que eu aprendi a respeitar bastante) estão também bastante bull!! :-)

Vamos a ver como isto se desenrola nas próximas semanas/meses

P.S.- O meu target está em 400 no Hui ;-)

     "As a pure contrarian i always seek for extreme sentiment to go agaisnt."


                                                                                  TMP*




  abraço,

Caro Paciente,

Eu aprecio bastante o Hamilton dado que faz sempre análises pertinentes, daí fazer algumas referências aos seus artigos e postar alguns. O que não quer dizer que siga as suas opiniões, gosto de o ler assim como outros para tirar as minhas próprias conclusões para a big picture. Daí ter dito que podemos vir a ter ainda um ultimo espasmo, e tal como o virtuagod acredito que ainda poderemos vir até aos 400.

A euforia ainda não chegou, algumas pennys ainda não arrancaram para movimentos brutais, os institucionais só agora olham para o metal, etc, são motivos que me levam a acreditar que ainda há potencial neste sector antes de uma correção maior ocorrer.

Também gosto muito quando os analistas têm quase todos a mesma opinião, quando o HUI chegou aos 300 alguns apregoaram logo uma correcção, mas tal consenso levou-me a acreditar que o mercado viria ainda até aos 350 e só depois corrigir, é certo que esperava uma maior correcção daquela que ocorreu mas não foi por isso que deixei de entrar novamente no mercado, e desta vez a maior fatia da carteira está nas empresas da Prata.  

Quanto ao metal dourado, esperava uma maior correcção, mas tal não aconteceu o que revela a apetência pelo metal, e acredito que uma consolidação nestes valores será extremamente benéfica tal como tem vindo a ocorrer.

virtuagod, aproveito para dizer que gostei bastante de acompanhar esses grandes canais.


PS:Resumindo e concluindo, acredito que ainda há espaço para novas valorizações mas é de estar com a pulga atrás da orelha.  

Cumprimentos

Mister Scuba então deduzo que esteja bear, é que a malta aqui pelo forum ainda acredita em novas subidas! 

Brincadeira...

Cumprimentos

Caro PekenoBuda fico contente por ter gostado dos meus canaizinhos... esta é uma técnica que tenho vindo a usar com bastantes proveitos (canais paralelos + Semelhança entre movimentos).

Mas mesmo assim é muito dífícil estar bull Scuba :-). Felizmente aqui só bull's nos metais e pessoal a fazer $ neles pelo que me parece :-) ainda bem

Negócios dourados

  Saudções ao Paciente e a todos os outros dinamizadores deste tópico.

  Este é o meu primeiro post no clube, embora já o consulte regularmente desde há alguns meses.
  Em Dezembro resolvi escolher algumas acções de empresas do ouro e prata para constituirem o meu póprio "Mining Fund"--carteira virtual, note-se.
  Ao fim de 2 meses de "buy and hold", está a render cerca de 32%, enquanto o fundo MLIF World Gold rendeu no mesmo período cerca de 12%  segundo os dados no respectivo site (já detive este fundo em 2003). Concluí assim que parece valer a pena fazer a escolha de acções, em vez de confiar no fundo...embora assim necessite de um acompanhamento constante (é impressão minha, ou as acções dos USA são mais voláteis do que por cá?).

  Bem, com a regularidade que me for possível cá terão mais um interveniente.

Cumprimentos,
Doc

Ora, parece-me que fiz tudo bem no primeiro post; cá vai o segundo.

Comprei na semana passada--negócio real, desta vez--acções da Coeur D'Alene (CDE) . Era a única do meu "Mining Fund" disponível para negociação; é do sector da prata, onde há menos por onde escolher; a Prata parece estar nest fase com um pouco mais de ímpeto que o ouro; a CDE está a render cerca de 8%--isto é positivo.

Da escolha original fazia parte a Silver Wheaton SLW; infelizmente, embora se encontre na listagem do BIG, não é possível negociá-la. O mesmo acontece com a Silver Standard Resources SSRI, outra acção possívelmente preferível à CDE.

Julgo que a CDE é preferível à Hecla Mining e à Pan American Silver. Qual a vossa opinião? Outras sugestões?

Como ligação às acções do ouro, a Glamis Gold GLG comprou a Western Silver e a Gold Corp GG tem a maioria da SLW.  Parecem-me ser companhias sólidas do ouro e que têm agora um aumento de exposiçaõ à prata. Poderão ser boas escolhas para o "fundo"...?

Cumprimentos,
Doc

 
Este é o 1º post que faço neste fórum e quero agradecer a todos os que contribuiram para o desenvolvimento deste tópico, em especial ao Paciente, que tem sido a sua espinha dorsal. 
Este é, na minha opinião, um dos melhores tópicos dos fóruns nacionais.
Parabéns.
Se surgir a oportunidade de contribuir, assim o farei.

Abraço,

nobody

Deixo aqui o último artigo do Ted Butler que, para além de abordar os enormes prejuízos nos contratos de "hedge" da Barrick Gold (muito camuflados aquando da apresentação de resultados), tem como principal assunto a questão da raridade da PRATA face ao OURO. Ao contrário do que a maioria pensa existe menos PRATA ao cima da terra do que OURO e, embora isto não seja novidade para quem lê os artigos do Ted Butler, a verdade é que só agora foi admitido oficialmente e logo pela SUA (Silver Users Association).

---------------------------------------------------
WEEKLY COMMENTARY

February 28, 2006


CONFIRMATION

By Theodore Butler


Almost two months ago, I wrote about Barrick Gold's large gold short position and growing hedge book losses, before their quarterly and year-end report was issued - "Lessons Learned?" http://www.investmentrarities.com/01-03-06.html I anticipated large derivatives losses.

On February 22, Barrick did report their earnings and no word of loss appeared in any of the dozens of news reports that covered the story of what is now the largest gold miner in the world. Instead, Barrick reported a quarterly profit of $175 million. Many people wrote me, asking how I could be so wrong. It's no fun for an analyst to be accused of being wrong. Especially when not only you are not wrong, but were right on the money.

While Barrick did report $175 million in quarterly profits, they did not report quarterly losses on their precious metals short position of 3 times that amount, or $500 million. They did not report a total open loss of over $2.8 billion on their short gold position. Well, Barrick did report these losses, just as I anticipated, but they reported them in such a manner, buried so deep and hidden in the footnotes, that the average person wouldn't see them in a million years. That's why people thought I was wrong, when I was spot on.

This isn't a question of me being right or wrong, this is a question of integrity. Not mine, but Barrick's and all other companies who report on their derivatives results. (For the record, I have not, do not and probably never will have a position of any type, long or short, in Barrick or any other company I have written about, and I am not intending to give specific investment advice. I am writing about such issues in the much broader context of how they influence metals' prices and how financial statements are constructed.)

I think it is very wrong for Barrick to attempt to hide their derivatives position from clear view. Because I have been following and writing on this issue for so many years, I know where to look in the earnings report for real story, but I admit, the information is not easy to find. And please keep in mind – there have been clear edicts from the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) dictating how derivatives must be accounted for. If it were not for these clear FASB rulings, I get the feeling we'd never know the true story.

For the record, here is the combined Barrick Gold (including the recently acquired Placer Dome) short position in fixed-price gold contracts. As of Dec 31, 2005, the total short gold position was 20 million ounces, with an open loss of just over $4 billion, based upon a $513 gold price. Since December 31, the company has covered 1.5 million ounces, including 1 million ounces of gold calls bought back by Placer for a realized loss of $222 million ($222 per ounce). Therefore, the company has 18.5 million ounces of gold shorts still open.

The $4 billion dollar open loss at year-end is the largest in history, to my knowledge. It is more money than Barrick ever made in its existence. It is equal to two full years of production. I would not make these statements if I did not believe them to be true. I am not out to embarrass myself or write false words. I will retract them if they can be shown to be untrue.

My point was not to attack Barrick, as I have no financial interest in what they do, but to show existing trading practices can result in unexpected consequences, much like the outsized COMEX silver short position. I wrote about gold "hedging" for years before these avoidable billions of dollars of losses occurred, just like I've written about the manipulative and dangerous level of silver short selling.

Another one of my prime contentions was recently confirmed. As long-time readers know, I have maintained that there is much more available above ground gold in the world than silver. I made this finding in the very first article I wrote for Investment Rarities, Inc. over five years ago http://www.investmentrarities.com/11-13-00.html

The confirmation came from the archenemy of higher silver prices, the Silver Users Association (SUA), in one of their petitions to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to kill the Silver ETF. The SUA offered research and documentation from the CPM Group showing that there was 4 times the amount of gold above ground (3 billion ounces) than silver (750 million ounces). The SUA was trying to show how much more disruptive a silver ETF would be than the gold ETFs.


While I would have preferred a citation from a different source than the SUA, I doubt that we will ever see anyone refute, with documentation, the assertion that silver is more rare than gold. Let me assure you – this is an important acknowledgement. Sure, the SUA only has its own self- interest in mind, but in promoting that interest, it is confirming a major unknown in the investing world, namely, just how rare silver has become.

It is just how unknown that silver is rarer than gold that makes this fact so powerful for silver investors. I think it is the most important long-term fact in silver. As it becomes more widely known in the years ahead, and it will, it is hard to underestimate the influence it will exert on the investors of the world.

Remember, nothing has to change in the physical realm in order for the force of the impact to be felt, just that more people have to become aware of a simple fact. In fact, not only does nothing have to change in the real world of physical commodities to establish the fact that silver is more rare than gold, but absolutely nothing can change in the decades ahead to change this fact. Let me restate that – never, or at least never in the lifetime of anyone reading these words today, will there ever be more silver above ground than gold.

I know that is an outrageous statement, but how could there ever be more silver than gold in the future? The only way that could possibly occur would be if the world began to produce giant annual mining surpluses of silver and continued those surpluses for decades. This, for a commodity that hasn't produced a single annual mining surplus in the past 60 years. Even if the world produced an annual 100 million ounce surplus (a build in inventories) for 50 consecutive years, the amount of above ground silver would just equal above ground gold at that time. And it would take such extraordinary high silver prices for that to be accomplished, that I would love to be wrong in my assertion.

Now that it appears that my contention about silver's rarity is being confirmed, I have heard the argument that rarity alone does not determine value. I don't buy that, especially when it comes to a comparison of gold and silver. There are a number of reasons behind my thinking.

For one thing, at the very heart of gold's perceived value is the very issue of rarity. Listen to the argument of any gold bug (many of which are good friends). Whether they look at gold as money, or insurance or the ultimate store of value, what they are really saying is gold is rare, that there isn't much of it to go around. I emphatically agree; gold is rare. That is why it sells for hundreds of dollars per ounce. My only point is the simple fact that silver is more rare than gold. Draw your own conclusions.

Another point I would make that the comparison between gold and silver is not a loose one. If any two things ever went together in peoples' minds, like love and marriage, horse and carriage, salt and pepper, it has to be gold and silver. No two other commodities hold, or have held, a closer pairing than gold and silver. They are natural and elemental companions, known to all people for all time.

The most important point I would make is that while these most natural of elemental companions are known to all people of our world, very few of the world's citizens actually realize just which one is the most rare. If it were possible to poll everyone in the world, I'm sure that 99.9% would think that gold is more rare than silver. They would hold that opinion because gold is so much more expensive than silver and not for any other reason. Their opinion would be at odds with the facts. Therein lies the great opportunity for silver investors.

In a prior article (that I can't even place, at this point) I remember writing about an exercise in which a typical second grade class was given the facts about two very similar commodities, without revealing the actual names of the two items. One was utilitarian, essential for modern technologies and living, the other was a luxury and non-essential. The essential one was being used up and there was less of it every day, the luxury item was accumulating. There was a lot less of the essential one, compared to the non-essential item. The class had to decide which one cost 60 times the price of the other.

I envision the world as that typical second grade class, about to be given a lesson, over the years to come, in which they will not only learn the true facts of silver, but will also try to put that lesson into practice, by buying the rare essential commodity.