Não podem durar para sempre mas há que reconhecer que no último ano houve n oportunidades em inúmeros activos, como continua a haver em especial na energia e nos metais!
Recordo-me por piada dum comentário escutado a um amigo de longa data, pouco conhecedor dos meandros dos mercados e que sabia do meu entusiasmo por este mundo da especulação, que me veio perguntar como se compravam commodities pela internet.
Às tantas ele dizia-me "Estive a ler numa revista americana que o que vai dar muito dinheiro no futuro é o paladium. Não sei muito bem o que é, nem a cor disso nem donde vem nem para que é que serve, mas tem um nome parecido com palácio! Vai dar muita massa de certeza, quero ser muito rico, é isso que eu vou comprar..." 
Até parece que estamos nas commodities a viver um remake do verão quente de 87 onde tudo subia mais de 10% ao dia em Agosto! 
Pode ser que o nosso amigo Paci nos elucide acerca deste novo material "misterioso" e do seu potencial. Um palácio futuro não vinha nada a calhar mal se aquilo for mesmo uma boa aposta... 
Abraço e espero que a Páscoa tenha sido muito boa para todos.
Turn

Citação de: Mr. Turn em Abril 17, 2006, 13:00
Não podem durar para sempre mas há que reconhecer que no último ano houve n oportunidades em inúmeros activos, como continua a haver em especial na energia e nos metais!
Recordo-me por piada dum comentário escutado a um amigo de longa data, pouco conhecedor dos meandros dos mercados e que sabia do meu entusiasmo por este mundo da especulação, que me veio perguntar como se compravam commodities pela internet.
Às tantas ele dizia-me "Estive a ler numa revista americana que o que vai dar muito dinheiro no futuro é o paladium. Não sei muito bem o que é, nem a cor disso nem donde vem nem para que é que serve, mas tem um nome parecido com palácio! Vai dar muita massa de certeza, quero ser muito rico, é isso que eu vou comprar..." 
Até parece que estamos nas commodities a viver um remake do verão quente de 87 onde tudo subia mais de 10% ao dia em Agosto! 
Pode ser que o nosso amigo Paci nos elucide acerca deste novo material "misterioso" e do seu potencial. Um palácio futuro não vinha nada a calhar mal se aquilo for mesmo uma boa aposta... 
Abraço e espero que a Páscoa tenha sido muito boa para todos.
Turn

aqui vai um artigo sobre o dito cujo "PALLADIUM" mestre ;-)

Don't Buy The Hype and Palladium Update

Emanuel Balarie

The stock market hit a 5 year high yesterday. Across the street from where I work, a Ferrari dealership recently opened up. Throughout America, families are eating out more often, digital cable has become a basic household necessity, and flat screen televisions are flying off the shelves. At first glance, all of these signs point to a robust economy. Consumers are spending money, corporations have record profits, and relative to the other citizens of this world, Americans are living lifestyles of the rich and famous.

As picturesque as the above scenario seems, it is no wonder why your average investor is not buying into the recessionary scenario. The stock market is heading higher, their home prices have appreciated, and the Fed is continually asserting that we have minimal inflation. As a result, investors are content on focusing their current lifestyles while ignoring the much larger global economic picture that is unfolding before their eyes.

In truth, the larger global economic picture does not look good for the overall US economy. Whereas the United States was once a great manufacturing economy, we have now become the greatest debtor nation in the world. Whereas the US dollar was once the safe haven of wealth, it is now be divested from Central Banks around the globe. Whereas the average US consumer had income and savings to continually purchase goods, they are now in debt. There is no question that these major fundamental factors have to be acknowledged. Focusing solely on your immediate lifestyle is hopelessly optimistic and shortsighted.

In his testimony before Congress, Ben Bernanke stated that he will rely heavily on data to determine how the economy is fairing. It is no wonder why your average investor is complacent about the long term outlook for our economy. Bernanke's comment in itself, reaffirmed that he will likely follow in the footsteps of Alan Greenspan. Relying mostly on data is like waiting for your kid's report card to determine if he needs help on his studies. Instead of noticing that he is not doing his homework and often misses class, you decide to take a "wait and see" outlook on the economy. This "wait and see" outlook will seem blissful in the short term, but will add greater damage to the US economy in the long-term. For example, instead of working on ways to combat inflation, Bernanke will spend time touting the overall strength of the US economy and the minimal Core CPI numbers. Until inflation is blatantly obvious and we are in the midst of a recession, he will likely be in denial of the true economic state of affairs.

In the last several months, we have seen a pullback in the commodity markets. As a result, the question of whether we are in a commodity bubble has risen more often. Investors that ask this question do not really understand the reason why we have had a multi year run in the commodity markets. First and foremost, there has never been a time in history where commodity bull markets have lasted less than 15 years. At this rate, we have at least another 10 years to go. Secondly, we are living in unprecedented times. If the average investor would stop and think about what is going on around them, they would likely come to the same conclusion.

Although the US consumer is living beyond their means, one third of the world's population is industrializing. And not only are they industrializing, but they are industrializing at a record pace. With industrialization, comes the need for raw materials and commodities. With industrialization comes the creation of an educated and wealthier working class. With the creation of a wealthier class, comes more discretionary income that will be spent on consumer products and food. This, however, will not happen overnight. But it will happen. You can either jump on the commodity bull market now, or regret that you did not participate in potentially the greatest bull market in history. I am offering a free brochure titled "The Case for Commodities" to anyone who asks. You can request one here

Palladium Update

As many of my clients and newsletter readers know, I have been extremely bullish on Palladium. My bullishness can be summed up by the opening paragraph of a commentary that I wrote seven months ago:

Whenever an asset falls in value by 80%, it has to be examined for its potential as a contrarian, value-oriented investment. Such is the case with Palladium. In a commodity bull market, where substantial run- ups have occurred in oil, copper, precious metals, and other raw materials, palladium has escaped the notice of most investors. Even more interesting, is that the price of palladium has declined in the midst of rising demand. I believe that this trend is about to reverse, as the manufacturing community is taking notice of the substantial spread between the two metals that are similar in their industrial use. (Full Article)

Since I wrote my initial commentary, Palladium has definitely reversed its downward trend. In fact, Palladium has risen 37% in value. Although this move up might not be surprising to some, since precious metals in general have hit multiyear highs, it does represent a reversal in a metal that has lagged behind its precious metals counterparts.




Furthermore, the spread between platinum and palladium has narrowed over the last several months. When I first talked about the spread, Platinum was 4.66 times more expensive than Palladium. Today, Platinum is only 3.28 times more expensive than Palladium. Another way of looking at this is that since my initial recommendation, Palladium has moved up 37% in value, while Platinum has only moved up 10 % in value.

In either case, price differentials between these industrially similar metals are still enormous. Take a look at the updated Platinum versus Palladium chart below:




In the intermediate term, I expect Palladium prices to make a quick run towards the 340 level where it will likely encounter strong resistance. In the long term, I expect the demand for Palladium to increase exponentially. It is interesting to note, that from 1996 to 2000, Palladium was the primary metal of choice for autocatalytic converters. After Palladium prices hit a record high in 2001, the demand for platinum increased. I see this trend reversing in the next several years.

If you are interested in participating in the Palladium Bull Market please contact me here

If you are interested in receiving my weekly commodity newsletter please sign up here

Emanuel Balarie
Senior Market Strategist
[email protected]
Direct toll free: 866-465-0017
International: 949-548-2021

Emanuel Balarie is a highly regarded advisor who advises high net worth individuals and institutions on the commodity markets and managed futures investments. Mr. Balarie's research has been published internationally and has appeared recently in The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and Money Week, as well as on CNBC and MSNBC. You can find out more about Mr. Balarie and his services at Wisdom Financial, Inc.

The risk of loss in trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

http://www.trsm86.blogspot.com

Amigo Teófilo "Cubillas":
Obrigado pela preciosa informação.
Bem , se aquilo for aos preços do fim do século há belos palácios pela certa para a malta que arriscar...
Abraço amigo e continuação de boa Páscoa.
Turn

Caro Mr. Turn,

Já em tempos chamei a atenção para este metal. Foi em 27 de Outubro do ano passado.

Inclusivé dei uma sugestão de investimento (uma empresa produtora de palladium) para quem não pudesse investir directamente no metal.

Podes ver aqui neste link //forumbolsa/index.php?topic=4234.0.


Abraço

De facto, amigo Paci, foi uma chamada de atenção na altura certa para quem gostaria de ter entrado!
E a Stillwater lá vai brilhando, como bem avisaste, nada como um especialista nestas coisas para amealhar como deve ser...
Caramba, porque raio a Carregosa não há-de ter o Cobre e a Platina e o Palalladium? Mistérios, quando estas oportunidades só aparecem uma vez de 30 em 30 anos...era só mergulhar e contar no fim o baú cheio!
Abraço e continuação de boa Páscoa.
Turn

A Carregosa não tem esses activos porque eles não existem sobe a forma electrónica. Eles também não têm os futuros do OURO e da PRATA da COMEX, mas têm os da CBOT.

Parece que futuramente vão disponibilizar esses activos mas para tal é necessário um pagamento anual para aceder aos mercados que os disponibilizam. O Crude de Nova Iorque também já não está disponível. Só o Brent que negoceia na IPE, em Londres.


Abraço

Paciente, sabe o ticket do brent na ljcarregosa? Obrigado

Já agora, cfds não existem?

Boas tojo,

CFD's sobre o crude não existem. Na LJ Carregosa só mesmo futuros do Brent. O ticker é o LCOxx em que os dois últimos dígitos correspondem ao código do mês e ano de contrato. Por exemplo, o contrato de Junho de 2006 tem o código LCOM6.


Abraço