O urânio continua em grande!

Acabei de ver o fixing da cotação semanal para o spot e fiquei espantado com a forte subida que registou em relação à semana anterior. Valorizou $3,50 para os $52, uma variação superior a 7%!!!

Costumo acompanhar a evolução da cotação do urânio e não me lembro de, nos tempos mais recentes, ter assistido a tamanha valorização numa única semana.

Continua imparável.

Paciente,

Nunca aconteceu um aumento em valor absoluto desta dimensão. Além disso, na minha opinião, este tipo de cotação do urânio U3O8 (através da UxC) pode não reflectir logo o real potencial de subida.

Mas $3,50 de subida numa semana é espantoso!

Abraço
Comentador

Para quem ainda não notou, o uránio ultrapassou a semana passada os 70 dólares.

A subida continua sem quebras. Há duas semanas havia subido $2,50 ena semana passada foram mais $6,50 de valorização, passando este metal a cotar nos $72.

Esta forte subida do urânio (+10%) foi concerteza a razão pela qual as acções ligadas a este metal registaram forte valorização na passada segunda-feira.

Será que vamos ver a cotação do urânio com três dígitos?

  Parece-me claramente uma commoditie em ascençao e corrijam-me se estiver errado mas :

A procura por este material tem superado a oferta ao longo destes ultimos anos.

A substituiçao do petroleo por uranio na produçao de energia electrica em centrais nucleares tem aumentado para alèm de estarem previstas cerca de 1 dezena de novas centrais .

A abundancia deste minerio certamente vai contribuir para uma maior utilizaçao do mesmo.

E outras que os nossos amigos forenses se lembrem de aqui postar .


E Paciente gostava de saber a tua opiniao pessoal sobre as perspectivas para 2007 sobre o Uranio , a sua abundancia nao levara a que os preços tendam a baixar no medio prazo ? , o facto das populaçoes temerem desastres como os ja ocorridos nao inibirá a sua total implementaçao ?   A UREX (urxe) parece -te uma empresa viavel , que sabes sobre ela ?


Desculpa tanta pergunta , mas como sei que és um entendido no assunto 

Caro Semitela,

É de facto muita pergunta!

Vamos por partes. Eu não sou nenhum especialista em urânio. Apenas tenho seguido este metal mais de perto pelo facto de estar em claro Bull Market. Tenho algumas posições em empresas do sector (que já aqui divulguei) mas não acompanho activamente todos os factores que influenciam o preço deste metal. A minha especialidade (se é que se pode dizer assim) é mesmo os metais preciosos OURO e PRATA.

Não tenho qualquer informação da "abundância " deste metal. Agradecia que o amigo Semitela colocasse aqui no Fórum alguns dados sobre este aspecto, até porque me parece algo estranho essa abundância.

O que eu penso é que em 2007 o urânio vai continuar a subir de preço. Como é óbvio este nível de preços actual já leva muitas empresas para a exploração deste metal com a possibilidade real de virem a ser construídas novas minas de urânio no futuro.

Mas esse futuro poderá ser ainda algo distante uma vez que a construção e entrada em funcionamento de uma mina deverá demorar em média 10 anos. O único reforço (substancial) do lado da oferta, que se esperava para o curto prazo, era a mina de Cigar Lake (pertencente à Cameco) que foi vítima de uma inundação grave que fez disparar a cotação do urânio.

Este acontecimento, foi um duro golpe para a oferta de urânio, num mercado ávido por este metal. Não se esperam grandes aumentos dos lado da oferta nos próximos dois anos.

As populações e grupos ambientalistas são de facto um problema sério mas que afecta sobretudo a procura deste metal. O facto de haver uma oposição às centrais nucleares (sobretudo no Ocidente) leva a que a procura esteja restringida. Não obstante, o preço tem subido o que se deve básicamente ao facto de a oferta não ser suficiente para a procura (que tem sobretudo aumentado em países a oriente, como a China), com consequências evidentes no preço.

Quanto à URXE, não me posso pronunciar pois não faz parte da minha lista de empresas deste sector. As minhas escolhas neste sector são, actualmente, a FRG e a URZ.


Abraço

Citação de: Paciente em Dezembro 28, 2006, 21:59
Caro Semitela

Não tenho qualquer informação da "abundância " deste metal. Agradecia que o amigo Semitela colocasse aqui no Fórum alguns dados sobre este aspecto, até porque me parece algo estranho essa abundância.

Desculpa ,foi eu que ao ler o artigo postado em baixo , ao ler que era mais abundante que o ouro e a prata presumi erradamente que era abundante .

Obrigado pela resposta rapida e concisa que nos deste .

Abaixo fica um link da Homepage da Urex Energy em que se explicam razoes da procura e processos de exploraçao deste minerio .
http://www.urexenergy.com/s/AboutUranium.asp

Ah bom, isso já é outra coisa! Ser mais abundante que o OURO e a PRATA é "normal". Não é por acaso que estes dois metais são considerados preciosos.

Mas já agora quero deixar aqui mais uma empresa que passou a figurar, a partir de hoje, da minha "Top List" de empresas do sector do urânio. Trata-se da Mega Uranium (Ticker: MGA.TO) e só está disponível no mercado canadiano.

Fez um violento breakout, com volume estrondoso e espectacular subida.

 
Boas Paciente ,

Sabes onde posso acompanhar a cotaçao do Uranio ?

É que entrei na URXE à 0,49$ e gostava de acompanhar esta commoditie. O seu Price target é de 3,00$


Abraços

Viva Semitela,

Podes acompanhar a cotação do urânio no site www.uxc.com, mas só é actualizada uma vez por semana.

Não conheço nenhum site que tenha cotações diárias de urânio (se é que existem).


Abraço

Citação de: Semitela em Janeiro 08, 2007, 16:51


É que entrei na URXE à 0,49$  . O seu Price target é de 3,00$


Abraços

Encontrei o tal artigo onde tinha visto a recomendaçao à URXE.OB

http://www.wallstreettradingalerts.com/URXE120506.html

Profiting from the Next Phase of the Uranium Bull Market

Doug Casey, Casey Energy Speculator
January 13th, 2007

When the fundamentals of uranium first caught my eye back in 1998, it was a contrarian's dream. At the time it was, to my thinking at least, the proverbial manna, an ultra-clean, ultra-safe, ultra-efficient and virtually unlimited source of mass energy, yet due to environmental hysteria was viscerally and universally despised. Its price had fallen to only about $9.00 on its way even lower, a price that made it uneconomic to produce, let alone explore for. As a result, there was a huge and growing short-fall in new mine production to meet demand. That short-fall was largely covered by reprocessing nuclear weapons, mostly from the former Soviet Union, but it was clear to me that that supply was finite, whereas demand was not.


A lot has happened since my first recommendation of uranium, or, more specifically, uranium stocks, back in 1998. Including, I am happy to say, my subscribers and I have made a lot of money (click here to learn how to become a subscriber). That is the reward for being early into a trend. But the trend has now been in motion for some time, and so it is worth revisiting. Is the big up-move in uranium prices over? Can you still find good value in uranium stocks? Marin Katusa, a uranium analyst here at Casey Research recently took on the task of answering those questions, the results of which follow. If you are invested in uranium stocks at the moment, or are thinking about it, you owe it to yourself to read on.


Doug Casey

With the spot price of uranium appreciating by 927% over the last 6 years, there's little question the easy money in the sector has been made­­. If, however, you pick your investments closely, there is a lot of upside remaining in the uranium bull market.

The uranium bull has come about due to the simple fundamentals of supply and demand, exacerbated by a global resurgence of interest in nuclear power as a mass energy solution. A resurgence helped by widespread concerns over global warming: unlike carbon-based fuels, nuclear emits no greenhouse gas.

In fast growing economies such as India and China, debate over the role of nuclear energy in providing mass power is effectively over: there are no other realistic alternatives to provide desperately needed baseload power. That explains why, in Asia alone, 57 new nuclear power plants are projected by 2015, a feverish pace. For these countries, nuclear is not just an option, but an imperative.

A corresponding growth in demand for uranium fuel is inevitable, but that demand only makes a bad situation worse, with new mine supplies already running about 40% behind demand. That deficit largely explains why uranium has skyrocketed in recent years, moving from just over $7 in January of 2001, to over $72 today.

Until relatively recently, there has been only one way to profit from this opportunity; by investing in companies involved in uranium production, processing or exploration. If you were in on the trend early, it was like the proverbial shooting fish in a barrel. Big fish.

Before the recent mania, back in October of 1998, Doug Casey was a lone voice in the woods when he issued a 16-page special report for subscribers detailing the reasons uranium was a screaming buy. At that time, you could count the number of junior uranium explorers on two hands. Many of his readers literally made fortunes from the small universe of stocks he brought to their attention (to provide just one example, his lead recommendation, Paladin, subsequently appreciated by over 3,000%, turning $10,000 into $300,000).

But that was then, and this is now. Today, interest in uranium has exploded and, as you would imagine, the market has become flooded with freshly-minted "uranium explorers"... close to 400 companies at last count. Make no mistake, the vast majority are nothing more than overpriced, over-hyped shells with little more in the way of assets than mildly radioactive moose pasture and aggressive corporate promoters who know how to spin a good story.

Put another way, the initial, "easy money" phase of this play is over. If you're looking to profit from rising uranium prices going forward – and we are convinced they will continue to rise – you'll have to pay a lot more attention to your securities selection. We'll discuss some of the key criteria to consider on that front momentarily, but first a quick look at the uranium spot price.

Where is the Spot Price Going?


To understand where the spot price is headed you first have to understand the purchasers and their roles. The primary purchasers of uranium are nuclear power utilities. Historically, they have contracted for fuel for a set period of time, stockpiling when they grew convinced that prices would be rising.

There is, however, a relatively new secondary market that has developed, devoted to buying and holding the metal itself. Funds such as the Uranium Participation Corporation (www.uraniumparticipation.com) effectively stockpile uranium, with the full intent of selling it later to the nuclear industry at substantially higher prices. These organizations have served to provide a baseline of support for the spot price of uranium between buying cycles. It's an important role, because higher prices provide the incentive for companies to navigate the many geological, engineering and, most importantly, political challenges required to bring a new deposit to market, a process conservatively estimated to take between 10 and 20 years.

One important point to understand about uranium is that, unlike oil and gas, higher spot prices trigger no consumer protests, or Washington hearing complete with grandstanding politicos trying to "protect" their constituents from the greedy price-gougers, a nearly monthly affair for oil and gas executives. The reason is that the amount of uranium used in creating nuclear power makes it a relatively minor component in the overall cost. A double in oil's spot price would result in energy cost increases of 40% or more for oil-based power generation plants and send the cost of gasoline at the pump soaring. A double in the spot price of uranium, however, would result in a mere 5% increase in the cost of electricity from a nuclear power plant. That's why you haven't heard anyone complain about the 927% price increase in uranium since 2001. Indeed, uranium could trade at $200 per pound and the utilities would hardly blink.

In sum, uranium is still cheap by any measure, including: what the market is willing (and able) to pay, prior highs and supply/demand ratios. Speaking of prior highs, in inflation adjusted terms, the price of uranium has been as much as 70% higher than it is today, a price level we see being taken out in this cycle.

Profiting from the Second Phase of the Uranium Bull Market


If you're looking strictly to ride the rising tide, stick with a fund such as the Uranium Participation Corporation, as that will appreciate pretty much 1:1 with the spot price, less holding and management fees, of course.

If, however, you are looking at getting (much) more bang for your uranium buck, then you'll want to look to get positioned in a portfolio of carefully selected junior uranium stocks.

As the Casey Uranium Index (CUI) below shows, juniors can widely outperform the spot price of uranium alone.

(The Casey Uranium Index is made up of the stocks meeting the criteria required for recommendation in the Casey Energy Speculator newsletter from Casey Research)

The secret to finding winning uranium stocks? Start by aligning yourself with high-quality management teams with proven uranium expertise. A surprising number of companies now claiming uranium expertise have little to no on-staff experience with this specialized metal. While it is hard to find one that has not already had extreme appreciation, look for "early mover" companies -- those which were actively acquiring projects before uranium became the flavor-of-the-day. They are most likely to be sitting on the most prospective concessions, in the best geological and political settings.

Finally, look for companies that are actually doing the hard work necessary to prove-up their resources, because verified pounds in the ground will be, for most of these companies, the trigger that gets them taken over – at much higher prices -- by a larger company with the specific skill sets to move the project into production.

And make no mistake, finding an economic uranium deposit, then bringing it to market is a Herculean task – far harder and more complex than, say, a gold or silver deposit, and even those are challenging in the extreme. Consequently, it is hard to overly stress the importance of investing with a proven management team; of the nearly 400 uranium companies fighting over your investment dollars, only a handful actually are worthy. Caution is the keyword.

Conclusion

During this second phase of the cycle, the uranium price is headed to $100, then $200. As the market matures and investors become more informed about uranium, the pretenders will be exposed and the contenders, those working hard to prove-up economic deposits, will be rewarded. Getting positioned today will still get you in ahead of the crowd, but don't be in a rush, and don't make the mistake of jumping into a pretender that has already had a big run up on nothing more than hype.

Citação de: Semitela em Janeiro 08, 2007, 23:43

Citação de: Semitela em Janeiro 08, 2007, 16:51


É que entrei na URXE à 0,49$  . O seu Price target é de 3,00$


Abraços

Encontrei o tal artigo onde tinha visto a recomendaçao à URXE.OB

http://www.wallstreettradingalerts.com/URXE120506.html

Aqui fica mais uma actualizaçao :

Boa valorizaçao , fecho à 0,57$

Boas Semitela,

Pode ser útil para adicionares mais algumas empresas à tua shortlist.

www.321energy.com/editorials/hoye/hoye011707.html

Abraço

 A Ma (200) parece ter chamado de volta o preço ao seu nivel .

O volume normal , mas nota-se o macd inverteu a duas sessoes atras e cresce tal como o rsi.


Acredito que o Uranio se continuará a valorizar por isso a minha aposta numa penny em que nao necessito de investir muito capital . Se subir será um bom negocio , se descer nao perco muito

Aquele valores de 0,4x parecem ter sido um fundo mas a ver vamos

http://www.urexenergy.com/s/Home.asp

Deixo um grafico com o fecho de ontem

Abraços e bons negocios.

Alexandre Semitela.