Tal como acontece nas accoes quando atigem o maximo e estao semanas a faze-lo um dia acontece que sem razao aparente comecam a descer, no PETROLIO acontece o mesmo. OURO e PETROLIO deram para min o estoiro e aos poucos vao descendo, bem pode a OPEP cortar na producao que nao lhes vai valer a pena. Se isto fosse sempre a subir ja estavamos todos ricos e nao a perder dinheiro como acontece a muitos incluindo eu.

Caros amigos

Permitam-me a opinião , mas o Petróleo encontra-se a subir há já 5 anos.  Já esteve nos 20 e agora está  nos 58. 

Não existe qualquer razão para parar de subir. 
Em minha opinião a subida do petróleo só pára quando o Bull Market acabar e ainda falta muito tempo.

O petróleo nos últimos meses apenas parou de subir para corrigir , respirar, e continuar a subir.

Em minha opinião a correcção está praticamente no fim.

Pessoalmente estou fora mas conto comprar algum amanhã porque o risco é muito pequeno.  Claro esta compra não é para daytrading.

Acho que em 3 meses o petróleo pode ir aos 64.

Opinião meramente pessoal

Cumprimentos e bons negócios.

fisher

 Talvez possa ir mais acima, ora lê isto :


A technical case for a crude bounce
Commentary: Crude still looks bearish, but it feels like a bounce is coming

Last Update: 3:12 PM ET Oct 23, 2006


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- What you see in the market isn't always what you feel. Sometimes the gut speaks louder than the mind.

The crude oil futures market made a mockery of OPEC's larger-than-anticipated production cuts on Friday, as the December contract slumped nearly 4% in two sessions to hit a 16-month low on Monday.

Actual cuts speak louder than threats, and traders and analysts
dismissed OPEC's statement just like they thought the cartel's members would. Friday's tumble completely negated the progress made the previous day, when prices surged in anticipation of OPEC's move.

"We think any cuts are likely to fall short of target, be temporary, or consist of heavy sour crude, which is in oversupply," said Analyst Fadel Gheit at Oppenheimer.
On the surface, this seemed the perfect market reaction for crude bears. But a closer look at the charts reveals something a little different.

Just as bears seemed to scoff at OPEC's feeble attempt to prop up prices, the bottoming in the underlying technical indicators was also ignored.
While the long-term charts still suggest the downtrend lives, the shorter-term charts indicate a bounce is likely and overdue.

Technical bounce

After falling sharply in nearly a straight line for 1 1/2 months, December crude bounced more than $3 a barrel in three sessions after hitting a 10-month low of $60.58 on Sept. 25. That was no bottom, however, as the price hit a new low by Oct. 3.
Meanwhile, as the price continued to decline -- December crude hit its lowest level in 16 months on Monday -- the underlying mathematical technicals have been steadily rising.
The relative strength index, which attempts to measure recent performance relative to its past, fell to an oversold low of about 15 on Sept. 20, when December crude closed at $61.72. On Monday, the RSI was at 33.78.
The momentum indicator, which measures the strength of up days against the strength of down days (down days should be stronger during downtrends), bottomed out at -10.58 on Sept. 20, and rose to -1.60 by midday Monday. Interestingly, it had increased from -2.99 on Friday, despite the sharp decline in crude prices on Monday.
This mismatched pattern between the actual price and technical indicators is referred to as "positive divergence," and suggests that each downside push is taking more and more out of bears, and having less and less negative effect on remaining bulls.
The pattern implies that if you didn't look at the actual price, and just watched the daily price action relative to recent history, you might guess that prices have actually increased. A crude bear's mind may be counting profits, but their gut is telling them that something is wrong.
Positive divergence may not necessarily be a good timing tool, but it should be heeded as warning not to be so eager to sell on a rally.
In the case of a bounce, levels to watch for some selling interest include the Oct. 17 high of $62.23 and the level between the Sept. 28 high of $64.95 and Sept. 18 high of $66.10.
Another key level of resistance would be between about $69 -- the 50% retracement level of the decline from Aug. 8 high of $79.90 to Monday's low of $58.12 -- and the 200-day simple moving average, which came in at $70.72 on Monday.
The daily charts suggest a bounce is likely, and given the severity of the declines over the last few months, it may last a little longer, and carry a little farther than expected. But since crude remains entrenched in a downtrend in the longer-term charts, don't expect a rebound to really challenge that latter level.

"There have been multiple positive divergences on the daily charts, however, weekly momentum is still bearish," said Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist at Standard & Poor's. "We still crude oil is tracing out a potential bottom but will need to see some strength soon, or more new lows might be in store."

December crude was down as much as $1.21 at its low of $58.12 on Monday, but losses were halved by the end of the day. Will bears cheer the extended loss, or feel more and more anxious about late-day recovery?

Oil and the elections

Analyst Philip Miller at New York Global Securities has a different take on what has been, and what will be the main driver of oil markets.
"Today we continue to believe that the demand and supply for oil has not been the best indicator for the determination of the price of oil, but extend our analysis to consider a potential factor that can affect speculative activity within the oil market," Miller said in a recent note to clients.
Miller said his analysis leads him to believe that politics may have had a lot more to do with oil price trends than production and usage. He feels the uncertainty over the upcoming mid-term elections has weighed on prices over the last three months, and that once the elections are over, crude will be free to rally again.
"We believe that the last three drops in the price of oil coincided with two major Senate hearings and the uncertainty of the upcoming U.S. election," Miller said. "We are recommending the accumulation of oil stocks and oil futures because we believe that following the U.S. mid-term elections, the price of oil is likely to test the tolerance of the market and the new members of Congress."
He noted that the price of oil dropped from a high of $70 a barrel to a low of about $56 two weeks after the Senate Commerce and Energy Committee meeting on Nov. 9, 2005, which produced no new legislation.
Oil then fell from $69 a barrel to $60 in the two months leading up to the March 14, 2006 hearing of the Senate's Judiciary Committee. Again, nothing happened, and oil prices ran back up close to $80 a barrel. 
Tomi Kilgore is a reporter for MarketWatch in New York.

 

Caro Semitela

Antes de mais o meu obrigado pelo comentário do Tomi  Kilgore.

Estou com ele.

Já entrei no Petróleo.

Subiu de forma pouco convincente. Porem se amanhã chegar aos 62 acho que podemos considerar que inverteu e vai aos 64 .

Se cair vou aguentar

Cumprimentos e bons negócios

fisher

 

Amigo fisher , aí vai ele em dirreçao ao seu target .

  Aproveite enquanto o cartel nao lhe poe a mao outra vez em cima.




Abraços e bons negocios.



Alexandre Semitela

Caro Semitela

O Petróleo ontem caiu bastante.

Chegou mesmo a assustar.

Aguentei e comprei mais.

Acho que hoje pode ir aos 61,5 ou mesmo 62. Presentemente está nos 60,55.

O petróleo é muito desejado, e parece muito barato  .

O que acham ?.

Cumprimentos e bons negócios

fisher