P/ João Henriques

Waterman · Fevereiro 16, 2005, 12:51

Calculo que já estejas ao corrente deste tema. Deixo-te aqui uns pequenos comentários de um trader e fico a aguardar uma opinião tua.

Interessaria saber também quando isto vai a "discussão"!

"The Dept of Labor just porposed new pension rules. This is a followup
to Elaine Chao's speech a few weeks ago. Here are some of the
important points.

1) Before this change, the discount rate for liabilities was based
upon 48 month averages of long term corporate rates. Now it is based
upon 90 day averages of corporate rates as created by the government;
the corporate curve will be a 0 curve as compared to bullets before
The likely impact is to lower the discount rate (rates have delined
over past 4 yrs so today's rate is lower than avg of 4 yrs). This
increases the pv of the liability. Moreover, it makes people more
sensitive to rate changes. This may add steam to the flattening
trend, may cause a rally in general, and may particularly impact
STRIPS and 0s in the longer end.

2) Before the change, any deficit was based upon smoothing of assets.
Now pv of assets will be used. Given the gyrations up and down in
assets, I am not sure this has much impact immediately. It may make
people more sensitive to asset changes going forward. It will reduce
people's willingness to hold volatile assets since the proposed rules
are fairly punitive for those who end up underfunded.

3) The timing to close the pension deficit is tightened. Coupled with
the above, this may cause an increase into investments in the near
term. Originally I though this was purely SPX bullish given the fact
that more money will come into pensions for investments; however, the
rules bias against risky/volatile investments so SPX message is mixed
at this stage. It mayy be bond bullish; however some may fund the gap
by borrowing on the corporate b/s and investing in the pension (ie,
GM). Also, this may weaken some credits like GM, F who are very
sensitive to pension issues. It may force them to solidify pension
fund at expense of corporate (in effect, a shift from investors to
employees).

4) Pension premium increase for companies at risk. This is a penalty
to defer bad funding. This may accelerate 3 -- shift of moneys into
pension funds and away from b/s"

Que me dizes?

Um abraço

Editar as notícias:

P/ João Henriques

Waterman