se o pior ainda está para vir...


--------------------------

But first take a look at this chart that shows how a company that provides bond insurance has taken a beating over the past seven months. Ambac Financial Group, which guarantees commercial and municipal bonds, is just one bond insurer being hurt by concerns over the declining value of the bonds they have insured. And, to top it off, bond-rating agencies have promised to review the AAA ratings of the bond insurers themselves. When will it end?

A Fitch Ratings já reduziu o rating da Ambac para AA-

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/bloomberg-on-ambac-ratings-cut.html

Pelos vistos andam também um pouco desorientados... 

S&P Will Review Bond Insurers With New Assumptions (Update3)

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Standard & Poor's will start a new examination of bond insurers, one month after affirming the companies' AAA ratings, because losses on subprime mortgages will be worse than the firm anticipated.

The ratings company will examine whether insurers including MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. have enough capital to withstand reductions in the ratings of the mortgage-backed securities they guarantee. The credit test will be completed within a week, said Mimi Barker, a spokeswoman in New York.

S&P is now assuming losses on 2006 subprime mortgages will reach 19 percent, up from 14 percent, as housing prices decline further than previously thought. That may make S&P more likely to downgrade the companies along with the mortgage-backed securities they guarantee, threatening the viability of the bond insurance business itself. Issuers buy insurance for the sole reason of attaching the AAA rating to their debt.

``The rating agencies have lost as much credibility as the bond insurers,'' said Richard Larkin, a municipal bond analyst with JB Hanauer & Co. in Parsippany, New Jersey. ``Every time you turn around they're changing their minds about what's going to happen in the subprime mortgage market.''

After completing a test of the financial guarantors on Dec. 19, S&P put the AAA ratings of MBIA, Ambac, Security Capital Assurance Ltd. and CIFG Financial Guaranty on negative outlook. The firm placed FGIC Corp.'s AAA rating under review for a possible downgrade.

19 Percent Losses

The new loan-loss assumptions ``reflect the growing economic consensus that U.S. home price declines will be larger than previously forecasted and that the slump in the U.S. housing market is expected to last far longer than previously anticipated,'' S&P said yesterday.

Late last year the three major credit rating companies said they were reexamining the capital levels of bond insurers after widespread downgrades of securities backed by subprime mortgages. The reviews triggered efforts by the bond insurers to raise capital.

Earlier today Ambac announced plans to sell $1 billion in equity and equity-linked notes and said it was cutting its dividend by 67 percent. Fitch Ratings had given the company until the end of the month to raise $1 billion to avoid a cut of its insurance rating to AA+.

Fitch also affirmed MBIA's AAA rating, citing its completion of a $1 billion surplus note sale last week. The notes priced at a yield of 14 percent. Over the long term, MBIA and the rest of the industry will still have to address additional losses related to subprime-mortgage securities and a drop in new business, Fitch said.

Moody's Investors Service said today it may cut Ambac's AAA credit ratings after the company reported $3.5 billion of writedowns on securities it guarantees and replaced its chief executive officer.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Richard in New York at [email protected]

Last Updated: January 16, 2008 23:02 EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a29C7jiILKT8&refer=home



Bond insurers may see AAA ratings cut: Fitch
Posted On: Nov. 08, 2007 12:19 PM CST

...

Fitch also said there is a "moderate probability" Ambac Assurance Corp. and Security Capital Assurance may experience contraction in their capital cushions, under Fitch's analysis.

Ambac said Tuesday that it named Paul Burke head of fixed-income investor relations to deal with investors who "analyze and invest in securities backed by Ambac's triple-A rated guarantee."

Investors are questioning bond insurers' "AAA" bond guarantees due to their subprime mortgage exposure. Before joining Ambac, Burke was a managing director of JPMorgan Chase's securitization business.

Fitch also said MBIA Insurance Corp. has a "low probability" of a reduced capital cushion due to a lower level of exposure to higher-risk CDOs.

http://www.businessinsurance.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?newsId=11550



S&P warns it may downgrade bond insurers' AAA ratings
By Alistair Barr
Last update: 12:15 p.m. EST Dec. 19, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's said on Wednesday that it may downgrade the AAA ratings of bond insurance units of Ambac Financial, MBIA Inc., Security Capital Assurance, and Financial Guaranty Insurance Co., part owned by private-equity giant Blackstone Group. The agency also slashed the rating of ACA Capital, to CCC from A. S&P said expectations for the performance of insured subprime residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations have deteriorated. Bond insurers exposed to these securities may have to pay claims or see downgrades to parts of their portfolios, leaving their capital levels too low to keep AAA ratings, the agency explained.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/sp-warns-may-downgrade-bond/story.aspx?guid=%7BB86BF092-FFD4-4B0C-938E-549534E15FDA%7D&siteid=msn

Isto parece uma espécie de Agoirento:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=112411


No entanto não deixa de ter alguma razão!...as bond insurers são sem sombra de dúvida a peça vital na engrenagem!...é para acompanhar de perto!

cump.

Ui...ui....


MBIA: Priced for Catastrophe
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120071150488302379.html?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo&page=1


Ambac downgrade may restrict municipal bonds
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/348115_bondinsurers21.html


ACA Capital Gets Second 'Forbearance Agreement'
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120088749602104183.html?mod=googlenews_wsj


Ambac on negative watch after cancelled equity offering - S&P
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-22392149.htm

TFN NEWS BRIEFING: Banking and insurance highlights to 15:45 GMT

2008-01-19 11:45:52
Ambac downgraded, cities seen at risk

NEW YORK (AP) - A downgrade of bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:AKT) (NYSE:AKF) (NYSE:AFK) (NYSE:ABK)

is likely to have far-reaching effects, making it more difficult for cities to
issue new bonds and forcing further write-downs at financial services companies,
analysts said Friday.



Ambac posts $3.3 billion loss but shares surge

http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idUSN2247543820080122


E pronto...por aqui me fico...já fiz muito serviço público por estes dias!! 

UI!.............................

Municipal bonds downgraded with Ambac
January 22, 2008: 02:12 PM EST

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-22435993.htm


..........

Boa noite
Apenas mais um pedaço para os interessados

Ambac Reports Loss, Talks With `Potential Parties' (Update3)

By Christine Richard

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc., the first bond insurer to lose its AAA credit rating because of subprime mortgages, is considering ``strategic alternatives'' after posting its biggest-ever loss. The shares jumped as much as 52 percent on optimism the company may be sold.

The second-largest bond insurer posted a fourth-quarter net loss of $3.26 billion, or $31.85 a share, after writing down the value of credit-derivatives tied to loans made to homeowners with poor credit by $5.21 billion, according to a statement by the company today.

New York-based Ambac, which replaced its chief executive officer and scrapped a $1 billion equity sale last week after the shares dropped 71 percent, said stockholders and ratings companies are ``underestimating'' its ability to weather a decline in the value of mortgage securities. Fitch Ratings cut Ambac to AA from AAA, casting doubt on the company's guarantees on $556 billion of municipal and structured finance debt.

``They can't issue equity and they can't issue debt,'' said Robert Haines, an analyst at bond research firm CreditSights Inc. in New York. ``The new CEO might be prepping the company for a potential sale.''

Michael Callen, who became interim CEO after Robert Genader left last week, said in a statement today that Ambac is ``exploring the attractiveness'' of various alternatives. He wasn't more specific.

in Bloonberg.com

Artigo completo

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHJS0.q_ZGrg&refer=home

Boas leituras antes de bons negócios

Ui..........não há dúvida que estes gajos são uns inconscientes!!!...tanto bilião a arder por erros tão estúpidos...a sustentar crescimentos falsos!  


Ambac, MBIA woes could spark more bank losses

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN2263708920080123


..."That could mean more volatility for global financial markets, which swooned on Monday partly on fears about the fate of U.S. bond insurers.

"Further downgrades would likely kick off yet more write-downs" by banks and brokers, said Christian Stracke, an analyst at research firm CreditSights, in a report on Tuesday.

Global banks have already announced nearly $100 billion in potential losses, according to figures from brokerage Friedman Billings Ramsey.

But a severe downgrade of the bond insurers "could have truly systemic implications for the global banking system," Stracke said."....

Massachusetts' regulator subpoenas bond insurers MBIA, Ambac

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2314877120080123


....

"The market relies on the insurance provided by these companies to price the bonds and to insure that investors get paid in the event of a default," Galvin said in a statement, adding, "If the credit quality of these companies comes into question, the impact on cities and towns is enormous.".
....

New York Regulator Pushes for Banks to Rescue Bond Insurers

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVPlJ2WgCKyw&refer=home


   

Fitch Downgrades SCA to "A"
Associated Press 01.24.08, 10:30 AM ET


NEW YORK - Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings said Thursday it downgraded bond insurer Security Capital Assurance Ltd.'s crucial financial strength rating to "A" from "AAA."

Bond insurers essentially need a "AAA" rating to generate new business. Fitch had said the bond insurer needed to raise $2 billion to cover potential future claims and maintain its rating.

The downgrade comes a day after SCA said it would scrap a capital raising plan that might have staved off a downgrade. SCA said current market conditions would make it difficult to raise fresh capital.

Shares of SCA fell 54 cents, or 14.3 percent, to $3.25 in morning trading.



http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/01/24/ap4570046.html

Ambac, MBIA White Knight Might Be Named Eric Dinallo: Joe Mysak
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aUqPEwr5c8h4&refer=home



Bond insurer woes may mean end of loophole: report
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2964512020080130

US STOCKS-Wall St off high on CNBC bond insurer report
http://www.reuters.com/article/usMktRpt/idUSN04BIGMOVE20080130


Bond Insurers May Be Downgraded As Soon As Today
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22918845


     

MBIA Posts $2.3 Billion Loss Because of Writedown
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22928311


Buffett poised to cash in on bond insurer woes
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN3021550320080131


...será que é desta que os bilionários avançam?!!!