LOL, o próprio Jesse deve agradecer-te lá em cima. 

 
Extrema debilidade na Europa



É curioso que depois de observamos como encerraram os índices do outro lado do Atlântico na passada sexta-feira, tenhamos assistido a uma sessão de forte correcção por parte dos índices europeus, quando seria de pensar no contrário, ainda por cima porque as bolsas asiáticas também fecharam de forma mais do que positiva. É complicado tentar justificar esta debilidade das bolsas da eurozona, mas se puxarmos pela memória, percebemos que começaram a decair no momento em que Trichet (há pouco mais de duas semanas) deu a entender que talvez houvesse necessidade, na próxima reunião do BCE, de se aumentarem as taxas de juro na Zona Euro. De qualquer das formas, e por ordem de solidez, está visto que actualmente seria de sobreponderar mais os índices asiáticos (sobretudo o Nikkei, claramente favorecido pelo efeito cambial, dado que o iene está mais débil e favorece o sector exportador), os norte-americanos e, por último, os europeus. E na Europa, o único índice que está a aguentar-se relativamente bem é o Dax Xetra alemão. 


cumprimentos

ET, Street Falls Off The Table: Financials paced a late slide in New York Tuesday; stocks closed near session lows as investors were pressured by a higher read on inflation and more weakness from the housing sector.
Wall Street was trading in a stable negative range for most of the day, but with just over a half hour remaining in the trading day the steadiness deteriorated.

The Dow was down 109 points, or 0.9%, to 12,160, the S&P 500 lost 9 points, or 0.7%, to 1,351, and the Nasdaq fell 17 points, or 0.7%, to 2,458.

Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people) was among the declines in the financial sector, after the brokerage said second-quarter earnings were down from a year ago.

Still, the firm's earnings of $4.58 a share, or $2.1 billion, beat the Street's estimate by more than a dollar a share. (See: "Goldman Feasts On Credit Crunch")

Shares of Goldman lost 1.3%, and the broader sector also slipped, after a Goldman analyst said early Tuesday that U.S. banks may need another $65 billion in capital, and predicted losses will peak in early 2009.

Dow components Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase were in the red, while Washington Mutual (nyse: WM - news - people) and Wachovia (nyse: WB - news - people) fell 7.9% and 5.4%, respectively.

Back on the earnings front, beating analyst expectations did little for Best Buy (nyse: BBY - news - people). The consumer electronics retailer saw shares sink 5.1%, despite profits of 39 cents a share in its first quarter, which topped the consensus estimate of 37 cents.

Airlines were resistant to Tuesday's stumble though. JetBlue Airways (nasdaq: JBLU - news - people) was among the sector leaders, up 5.4%, after Morgan Stanley raised its shares to equal weight from underweight.

On a low-volume day, the Labor Department's producer price index weighed on the market early.

The inflation gauge was up 1.4% in May, more than expected and well above April's 0.2% increase. Soaring prices of food and energy were the primary culprits though, as core PPI, which strips out those figures, was up just 0.2%, less than the 0.4% uptick in April. (See: "Stagflation Nation")

Even with the moderate core figure, the rest of the day's economic data did little to inspire, as home builders cut back in new construction, dropping the number of housing starts and new building permits.

Meanwhile, industrial production and capacity utilization both came in worse than expected.

Oil prices were slightly lower, as crude fell 60 cents to $134.01 a barrel, ahead of Friday's expiration of the July contract.

Tuesday's low trading volume was a bit of a surprise in an options expiration week, when there is typically more activity.



1:00 PM ET, European Markets High On Goldman Anticipation: Strong second-quarter earnings from American investment bank Goldman Sachs pushed European shares slightly higher Tuesday.

Britain's FTSE 100 closed up 1.6%, while France's CAC-40 closed up 0.6%, and Germany's DAX closed up 0.9%.

The brokerage house beat expectations with it second-quarter profits on Tuesday, posting earnings of $2.1 billion, or $4.58 per share. That was an 8.6% drop from last year's figure of $2.3 billion, or $4.93 per share, but far better than the $3.42 a share that analysts had expected. (See: "Goldman Feasts On Credit Crunch")

In Europe, stocks seemed to shrug off confirmation of soaring consumer prices in Britain. U.K. inflation reached the highest, at 3.3%, since 1997, when the country began tracking consumer price inflation for the first time. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King predicted it will exceed 4.0% later this year. On Monday, the euro zone inflation rate was reported at 3.7% in May, up from 3.3%.

Meanwhile, Germany's investor confidence dropped to -52.4 points in June, from -41.4 in May, amid soaring food and oil prices and fears of an upcoming interest rate rise, according to the ZEW institute's monthly index, which measures investors' expectations for the German economy over the next six months.

In other European business news, Alcatel-Lucent (nyse: ALU - news - people), the Franco-American telecommunications equipment maker, said it was chosen by BT Group (nyse: BT - news - people) to supply its IP service router. The value of the contract has not been disclosed. Alcatel-Lucent got another boost on news late Monday of a $1 billion contract from China Mobile (nyse: CHL - news - people); shares jumped by 4.85%, to 4.53 euros ($7.02), in Paris by the early afternoon.

The automobile sector closed up 2.5%, pushed by Daimler (nyse: DAI - news - people)'s announcement that it would resume share buybacks after a temporary pause; it also outlined plans to spend up to 6 billion euros ($9.31 billion) to repurchase up to 10.0% of its shares.

The euro gained against the dollar amidst bad economic news from the United States and near record high oil prices. The euro traded at $1.5493, up from $1.5478; while the British pound traded at $1.9662, up from $1.9635.

Oil fell 37 cents, to $134.24, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Reuters, Thomson Financial and the Associated Press contributed to this article.



12:05 PM ET, Stocks Scuffle On Inflation, Housing Data: Wall Street continued its sideways shuffle Tuesday, as an early rally gave way to mixed trading as strong earnings from Goldman Sachs were overshadowed by a leap in a monthly inflation reading.
The producer price index heated up by 1.4% on a wholesale level in May, more than expected after rising just 0.2% in April, thanks primarily to soaring energy and food prices.

On a core level, which strips away those prices, PPI was up a far more manageable 0.2%, as expected.

Oil prices were volatile during Tuesday's choppy session, recouping early losses for a 22-cent gain to $135.56 a barrel.

Meanwhile, seed and fertilizer companies were near record levels, as recent Midwest flooding has driven up the price of corn, exacerbating an already escalating demand for increased food production.

Shares of Monsanto (nyse: MON - news - people) gained $5.12, or 3.8%, to $141.04, Mosaic (nyse: MOS - news - people) added $3.63, or 2.4%, to $157.07, and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (nyse: POT - news - people) was up $6.49, or 2.8%, to $236.62.

Energy stocks were also on the rise, with Exxon Mobil (nyse: XOM - news - people) and Chevron (nyse: CVX - news - people) among the few gains on a shaky Dow Tuesday, up less than 1.0% each.

Overall, the blue-chip index was down 60 points, or 0.55, to 12,209, after starting the day higher. The S&P 500 was off 3 points, or 0.3%, to 1,357, and the Nasdaq slipped 5 points, or 0.2%, to 2,470.

Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people) gave the financial sector an early bump after reporting second-quarter earnings that beat the Street's estimate by more than a buck, but the broader gain evaporated quickly, as did Goldman's.

Shares of the firm were down $2.08, or 1.1%, to $180.01 by midday, as executives spoke on a conference call to discuss the earnings report.

In addition to the inflation figures and Goldman earnings, investors were also taking in reports on housing and industrial data.

The U.S. Census Bureau said housing starts and building permits fell slightly in May, while completions were up slightly from revised April figures.

Meanwhile, a May report from the Federal Reserve showed industrial production was down 0.2% in May, and capacity utilization fell to 79.4%. Both figures were worse than expected.

The Fed has been the center of attention of late, with a robust debate over interest rates taking the fore.

Fed officials have made it clear the easing portion of the current monetary policy cycle is over, but market watchers are split over when the tightening will begin.

Few are predicting a rate hike as soon as the Fed's next policy meeting June 24-25, but there is more of a question over whether the central bank will hike any time before November's election.

With a weak dollar and hotter inflation on one side, and rising unemployment on the other, the Fed finds itself in a challenging position. (See: "Bernanke's Rate Spike Poker Face")

The greenback was softer on Tuesday, as the euro rose to $1.5500, from $1.5466 late Monday.

Treasury prices were in flux on the volatile day, with yields barely off Monday levels. The 10-year note was yielding 4.23%, down from 4.25%, while the 2-year yield was down to 2.95%, from 3.02%.



10:32 AM ET, Goldman Shines, But Stocks Shrug On Mixed Data: One of Wall Street's crown jewels continued to glide above the woes of the credit crisis Tuesday, while a key inflation report showed prices heated up just slightly in May when food and energy are excluded.
The Producer Price Index came in at 1.4%, well above April's 0.2% reading, largely owing to soaring oil and food prices. Stripping away those volatile sectors, so-called core PPI was up only 0.2%, better than the 0.4% increase a month ago and in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people) continues to outperform its rivals, beating second-quarter expectations just a day after competitor Lehman Brothers (nyse: LEH - news - people) confirmed a $2.8 billion loss for the quarter. Goldman earned $4.58 a share, or $2.1 billion, down from the similar period in 2007 but more than a dollar a share better than the $3.42 consensus estimate. Shares of Goldman were up $2.72, or 1.5%, to $184.81, early Tuesday, giving a modest lift to the broader market, which was struggling to break free of a recent sideways pattern.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 36 points, or 0.3%, to 12,305, while the Standard & Poor's 500 added 4 points, or 0.3%, to 1,365, and the Nasdaq picked up 5 points, or 0.2%, to 2,480.

Investors' gauge of the state of the U.S. consumer also moved up, after Best Buy (nyse: BBY - news - people) reported earnings that topped expectations. The electronics retailer said first-quarter earnings per share were above estimates at 43 cents, up from 39 cents a share in 2007, even as net earnings fell to $179 million, from $192 million.

Shares of Best Buy slipped by 64 cents, or 1.4%, to $45.24, while rival Circuit City (nyse: CC - news - people) gained 5 cents, or 1.2%, to $4.36.

Retuning to the economic front, Tuesday's housing data was mixed, as new starts came in at 975,000, below expectations and also lower than a revised 1.008 million in April. New permits were also down slightly from April's revised figure, while completions ticked higher, to 1.132 million, from 1.014 million.



9:25 AM ET, European Markets High On Goldman Anticipation: European shares traded slightly higher Tuesday, on expectation of strong second-quarter earnings from American investment bank Goldman Sachs.

Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.6%, while France's CAC-40 rose 0.9%, and Germany's DAX rose 1.4%.

Investors are expected to look for evidence of how much the global credit crisis continues to affect investment banks as Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people) reports second-quarter results in New York. Wachovia analyst Douglas Sipkin says Goldman is likely the best positioned among the nation's investment banks and maintains a "superior capital position." Its second quarter should be helped by equity banking, as it was able to take advantage of financial services firms raising new capital through managing offerings, he said. (See: "Goldman Patches Up A SIV")

In Europe, stocks seemed to shrug off confirmation of soaring consumer prices in Britain. U.K. inflation reached the highest, at 3.3%, since 1997, when the country began tracking consumer price inflation for the first time. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King predicted it will exceed 4.0% later this year. On Monday, the euro zone inflation rate was reported at 3.7% in May, up from 3.3%.

Meanwhile, Germany's investor confidence dropped to -52.4 points in June, from -41.4 in May, amid soaring food and oil prices and fears of an upcoming interest rate rise, according to the ZEW institute's monthly index, which measures investors' expectations for the German economy over the next six months.

In other European business news, Alcatel-Lucent (nyse: ALU - news - people), the Franco-American telecommunications equipment maker, said it was chosen by BT Group (nyse: BT - news - people) to supply its IP service router. The value of the contract has not been disclosed. Alcatel-Lucent got another boost on news late Monday of a $1 billion contract from China Mobile (nyse: CHL - news - people); shares jumped by 4.85%, to 4.53 euros ($7.02), in Paris by the early afternoon.

The automobile sector rose 2.7% in midday trading, pushed by Daimler (nyse: DAI - news - people)'s announcement that it would resume share buybacks after a temporary pause; it also outlined plans to spend up to 6 billion euros ($9.31 billion) to repurchase up to 10.0% of its shares.

The euro gained against the dollar amidst bad economic news from the United States and near record high oil prices. The euro traded at $1.5508, up from $1.5489; while the British pound traded at $1.9662, up from $1.9635.

Oil fell $1.41, to $133.20, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

--Reuters, Thomson Financial and the Associated Press contributed to this article.



8:40 AM ET, Flat Day in Tokyo: Steel Down, Utilities, Shipping Up: Asian stock markets traded flat on Tuesday, as investors were reluctant to take any major decisions following a lackluster session on Wall Street.
The Nikkei 225 index closed listlessly at 14,348.37, down 0.04%, or 6 points, from Monday, while the broader Topix edged up 0.02%, to 1,401.98, after yen stabilized at 108.52 against the U.S. dollar.

Steel makers fell after brokerages downgraded companies like JFE Holdings (other-otc: JFEEF - news - people) (down 1.0%, to 5,760 yen [$53.21]) and Kobe Steel (other-otc: KBSTY - news - people) (down 2.7%, to 327 yen [$3.02]), but investors sought bargains from recently laggard stocks, such as shipping and utility companies. Boosted by a retreat in the price of oil, Tokyo Electric Power (other-otc: TKECF - news - people) rose 1.0%, to 2,605 yen ($24.16); Chubu Electric Power advanced 3.0%, to 2,400 yen ($22.21), while Kansai Electric Power (other-otc: KAEPF - news - people) gained 2.0%, to 2,300 yen ($21.28).

New York's main oil futures contract--light, sweet crude for July delivery--hit an all-time high of $139.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday, amid uncertainty over Saudi Arabia's pledge to increase production. But eventually the contract price dived, closing at $134.61. In the electronic trading in Asia on Tuesday afternoon, the benchmark crude oil price declined by a further 13 cents, to $134.44 per barrel.

In Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.95%, to 5,422.70, while the All Ordinaries index gained 0.9%, to 5,525.90, amid speculative buying in banks, which rebounded from an early sell-off.

"There was talk that one of the big four [Australian] banks was going to do a major rights issue but that hasn't been confirmed," said Rick Klusman, head of institutional trading at Aequs Securities. National Australia Bank (other-otc: NABZY - news - people) rose 1.5%, to 27.97 Australian dollars ($26.31); Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (other-otc: ANZBY - news - people) added 1.8%, to 19.75 Australian dollars ($18.60); and St. George (other-otc: STGKY - news - people) was up 1.8%, at 29.57 Australian dollars ($27.82).

South Korea's KOSPI index fell 0.6%, to 1,750.71, led to the downside by construction stocks, after construction workers joined a strike by truckers that has paralyzed the export-dependent country's ports. The Korea International Trade Association urged workers to go back to work on Tuesday, as the ongoing truckers' strike had by then caused an estimated $4.3 billion in damages to the economy.

The Hang Seng index moved up by 0.1%, to end a choppy day at 23,057.99, even though the Shanghai Composite index, which it often tracks, fell 2.8%, to 2,794.75. Elsewhere in the region, Taiwan's Taiex weighted index closed 0.4% higher, at 8,201.79; Singapore's Straits Times index drifted down 0.3%, to 3,028.24; while the BSE Sensex in Mumbai rose 2.0%, to 15,696.90.

--Thomson Financial contributed to this article.



1:41 AM ET, Asian Stocks Mixed: Asian stock markets were mixed in choppy trade Tuesday following a lackluster session on Wall Street, with banking stocks rising in Australia and steelmakers and automakers sliding in Japan.
The Nikkei was up 0.2% at 14,381 in midafternoon trading while the broader Topix gained 0.3% to 1,406 as a stable yen continued to buoy sentiment.

Steelmakers fell after brokerages downgraded companies including JFE Holdings and Kobe Steel (other-otc: KBSTY - news - people), but investors sought bargains from laggard stocks such as shipping and utility companies.

Boosted by a decline in the price of oil, Tokyo Electric Power rose 1% to 2,605 yen ($24.16), Chubu Electric Power advanced 2.8% to 2,395 yen ($22.21) while Kansai Electric Power gained 2.4% to 2,310 yen ($21.42).

New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for July delivery, hit an all-time high of $139.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday, amid uncertainty over Saudi Arabia's pledge to increase production, but eventually dove, closing at $134.61.

In trading in Asia, the benchmark dropped 20 cents to $134.41 a barrel.

In Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.6% to 5,405 while the All Ordinaries index gained 0.6% to 5,510 amid speculative buying in banks, which rebounded from an early sell-off.

"There was talk that one of the big four banks was going to do a major rights issue but that hasn't been confirmed," said Rick Klusman, head of institutional trading at Aequs Securities.

National Australia Bank (nyse: NAB - news - people) rose 1.9% to 28.07 Australian dollars ($26.45), ANZ added 1.8% to 19.75 Australian dollars ($18.60) and St. George was up 1.3% at 29.42 Australian dollars ($27.72).

South Korea's Kospi fell 0.6% to 1,750, led to the downside by construction stocks, after construction workers joined a strike by truckers that has paralyzed the export-dependent country's ports.

The Hang Seng index was off a point at 23,028, the Shanghai Composite fell 1.0% to 2,846 and Taiwan's Taiex was off 7 points at 8,163.





 

 

Portugal PSI20 10088 (-1.44%) BCP 1.640 ( 0.30 %) Altri 3.240 (-5.26%)

A bolsa nacional sofreu novamente a influência negativa da conjuntura externa, que originou uma correcção generalizada nos componentes do PSI20.
A Zon Multimédia corrigiu após os recentes ganhos. A Altri e a Portucel recuaram devido à diminuição das projecções dos resultados de duas empresas finlandesas do sector, a Stora Enso e a UPM. A P.Telecom acompanhou a tendência dos seus pares europeus, no dia em que a empresa comunicou que o seu serviço Meo atingiu os 100 mil clientes.
O BES e o BCP não conseguiram afastar-se da tendência geral, registaram uma overperformance face ao DJStoxx Banks.

Europa Ibex 12631 (-1.97%) Dax 6729 (-0.99%) Cac 4618 (-1.44%)

Os mercados europeus continuam a não conseguir desenhar uma tendência definida, sendo uma sessão negativa seguida por uma positiva e vice-versa. Os ganhos alcançados ontem foram perdidos com a correcção de hoje.
Um dos sectores mais voláteis tem sido o petrolífero, já que os seus componentes têm espelhado as oscilações do crude. Durante a manhã, as acções petrolíferas figuraram entre os piores performers do DJ Stoxx 600, embora tenham conseguido recuperar na parte da tarde, em virtude da queda das reservas de gasolina nos EUA.
Com a queda das acções da Morgan Stanley nos mercados americanos, o DJ Stoxx Banks agravou as perdas, acabando por ter um dos piores desempenhos do dia.
O sector farmacêutico foi a única excepção, tendo sido favorecido pelo seu carácter defensivo e pela subida da Pfizer, após esta empresa ter chegado a um acordo com uma outra empresa relativamente à venda de alguns medicamentos genéricos.

Wall Street S&P 1335 (-1.17%) Nasdaq100 1952 (-1.05%) Dow Jones 12064 (-0.79%)

Os mercados americanos negociavam em baixa, sendo os resultados apresentados uma das razões para esta fraqueza. A Morgan Stanley alcançou EPS trimestral de 0.95 USD, superando os 0.92 USD previstos, mas que representam uma quebra significativa face ao mesmo trimestre de 2007 (EPS de 2.45 USD). Foi ao nível das receitas que os investidores ficaram desapontados. Por seu lado, a transportadora Fedex reportou resultados inferiores às estimativas (1.45 USD vs 1.47 USD) e reduziu as suas projecções para o actual trimestre. 

   

De novo nos suportes críticos...

Uma vez mais, os índices testaram os mínimos da semana passada e teremos de ver que reacção vão ter a partir dos referidos níveis. Em teoria, se não se aguentarem, será de pensar num regresso à origem do movimento, ou seja, aos mínimos que marcaram os índices em inícios do ano, alguns no mês de Janeiro e outros em Março. Desta vez, nem sequer o mercado cambial pode dar-nos uma pista, visto que se encontra exactamente em terra de ninguém, a meio caminho entre o suporte (1,5280 dólares) e a resistência (1,5820 dólares). Outro cenário possível será o de tentarem, a partir dos mínimos da semana passada, construir uma formação de inversão para a alta. De qualquer das formas, não temos a formação de inversão em lado algum, simplesmente podemos observar fortes níveis de sobrevenda que nos fazem pensar que mesmo que os mercados corrijam um pouco mais, não faz sentido desfazer-se de posições (se ainda não as tiver vendido) nos actuais níveis, visto que provavelmente acabaremos por o fazer perto dos mínimos.

Não erguem a cabeça


Parece que as bolsas querem tentar marcar um patamar perto dos actuais níveis, mas talvez caiam ainda um pouco mais, até aos mínimos de Janeiro (ou de Março, conforme os mercados), e só a partir daí é que talvez comecem a recuperar. O castigo sofrido pelo conjunto das bolsas no último mês revela-se excessivo, se bem que haja índices como o Nikkei e o Nasdaq 100 que estão a aguentar estoicamente as quedas das últimas semanas. Nem sequer o mercado cambial é capaz de nos dar alguma pista, visto que está (euro vs dólar) a meio caminho entre os 1,5280 dólares do suporte e os 1,5820 dólares da resistência. Enquanto não sair desse impasse, é difícil tentar adivinhar um movimento tendencial, tanto para a moeda única europeia como para os mercados bolsistas. Assim, nada mais podemos fazer senão esperar que o mercado se defina para um ou outro lado, ainda que se nos fixarmos nos osciladores de momento dá a sensação que o desenlace poderá ser fortemente altista, se bem que também seja certo que há muitas sessões que estamos a pensar assim. Concluindo, o mercado de momento é para deixar de lado.

Portugal PSI20 9657 (-1.93%) Sonaecom 2.20 ( 4.76 %) Teixeira Duarte 1.140 (-5.00%)
O PSI20 teve uma sessão bastante negativa que intensificou o momentum negativo que já há alguns dias tem caracterizado o mercado nacional. A correcção foi generalizada, tendo abrangido 18 dos 20 membros do índice. As small caps foram as mais visadas, o que é explicado pela preferência dos investidores por empresas de maior capitalização em tempos conturbados e pela sua fraca liquidez.
Mesmo assim, alguns títulos foram influenciados por factores específicos que prevaleceram sobre os factores de mercado.
O BES contrariou a tendência geral ao confirmar os seus objectivos para 2010, numa fase delicada do mercado. O banco continua a pretender alcançar um crescimento anual dos resultados entre os 8% e os 10% e atingir um retorno dos activos em 2010 de 19%.
A Sonaecom também recuperou da recente correcção, embora não sejam conhecidas as razões para este movimento.
Os restantes títulos do grupo continuaram a sua tendência descendente, atingindo novos mínimos anuais.

Europa Ibex 12434 (-1.20%) Dax 6578 (-0.12%) Cac 4509 (-1.79%)

Os mercados europeus fecharam com perdas avultadas, tendo-se assistido a uma forte aversão ao risco, que degenerou em ordens de vendas sucessivas, que agravavam o sentimento dos investidores, que por sua vez aumentava a mesma aversão ao risco, alimentando assim um ciclo vicioso. De acrescentar ainda que o vencimento dos futuros e opções nos diversos mercados europeus aceleraram o movimento em baixa.
Na sessão foi visível uma postura bastante defensiva dos investidores, que se traduziu numa overperformance dos títulos farmacêuticos e na subida das obrigações. Em momentos mais conturbados, o sector bancário mostra-se bastante vulnerável, o que se repetiu durante a sessão de hoje.
A queda de ontem do petróleo originou uma correcção generalizada no mercado de commodities (matérias-primas), o que implicou a queda das acções mineiras.

Wall Street S&P 1324 (-1.33%) Nasdaq100 1939 (-2.15%) Dow Jones 11934 (-1.07%)

A queda dos mercados europeus estava a influenciar negativamente os títulos americanos. As operações relacionadas com o vencimento de futuros e opções também estavam a penalizar o comportamento dos índices americanos. 

   

Sour End To A Rough Week:


Wall Street was saddled with hefty losses, and stocks sailed toward mid-March lows Friday, ahead of a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting next week.
The Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy, meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and while little action is expected, the central bank's statement will still be thoroughly dissected by market watchers.

Fed officials from Chairman Ben Bernanke on down have struck a more hawkish tone on interest rates of late, stressing their job as inflation fighters. The remarks have made it clear the easing portion of the current rate cycle is at an end, but it remains unlikely the Fed will start hiking rates this early. (See "Bernanke's Rate Spike Poker Face.")

A Deutsche Bank research report says investors should expect a relatively neutral risk assessment, with the Fed waiting until its August meeting to offer a more explicit tightening bias.

Concerns remain that with the effects of the government stimulus package fading in the third quarter, household spending will continue to be pressured, making it difficult for the Fed to hike rates.

Treasury prices were higher Friday, dropping yields. By day's end the 10-year was yielding 4.16%, down from 4.22% Thursday, while the two-year yield was at 2.88%, from 2.99%.

Oil prices were higher, on reports of Israeli military exercises that American officials said could be rehearsals for potential attacks on Iran, according to TradeTheNews.com.

At the end of a hectic week that saw fresh records Monday, crude gained $2.69 to $134.62 Friday, as the July contract expired.

The week also saw China roll back government oil subsidies, hiking the price of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel by about 8.0% Friday.

On Sunday, a summit in Saudi Arabia will bring together oil producer and consumer nations to discuss what can be done about the record rise in prices.

United States Oil Fund (amex: USO - news - people), an exchange-traded vehicle that invests in crude and other oil products, gained $2.23, or 2.1%, to $109.14, but energy stocks scuffled in general, as the Energy Select Sector SPDR (amex: XLE - news - people) ETF lost 58 cents, or 0.7%, to $85.75.

The broader market was also battered, as the Dow lost 221 points, or 1.8%, to 11,842, the S&P 500 dropped 25 points, or 1.9%, to 1,318, and the Nasdaq tumbled 56 points, or 2.3%, to 2,406.

Looking ahead to next week, the economic calendar heats back up as the Fed meets Tuesday, with the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for April due, and expected to show a decline. Also Tuesday, the Conference Board reports its June consumer confidence index.

On Wednesday, data on durable orders and shipments, as well as new home sales, is due, followed in the afternoon by the Fed's statement, which is expected to hold the target rate for federal funds steady at 2.0%.

Thursday gets the final reading on first-quarter GDP, which analysts expect to be revised upward slightly from the last estimate of 0.9% growth.

Existing home sales are also due from the National Association of Realtors Thursday, and the week will wind down with reports on personal income and expenditures Friday.

In corporate news, automakers will be closely watched, after Standard & Poor's placed the corporate debt ratings of General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people), Ford Motor (nyse: F - news - people) and Chrysler on negative watch Friday, citing the deteriorating condition of the U.S auto industry. (See "Down On Motown.")

Shares of GM lost $1.00, or 6.8%, to $13.79, while Ford dropped 51 cents, or 8.1%, to $5.81.



4:50 PM ET, Stocks Finish Off Lows, Barely: Wall Street whimpered into the close, mercifully bringing an end to a brutal week for investors.
In what was expected to be a volatile session, choppy trading went in only one direction Friday, straight down.

Oil prices surged, and stocks tumbled, on a brutal day for financial and tech stocks.

U.S. automakers also took a beating, after Standard & Poor's put the corporate debt ratings of General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people), Ford Motor (nyse: F - news - people), and Chrysler on watch for possible downgrade.

S&P said deteriorating conditions in the American auto industry prompted the move, which sent shares of GM and Ford reeling. (See: "Down On Motown")

Dow component GM lost 6.0%, on a day when the index fell 221 points, or 1.8%, to 11,842, while Ford dropped 8.2%.

The S&P 500 slipped 25 points, or 1.9%, to 1,318, and the Nasdaq fell 56 points, or 2.3%, to 2,406.

For the week, the Dow slid 3.8%, the S&P 500 shed 3.1%, and the Nasdaq was off 2.0%.

Trading was shaky all day, as crude prices surged at the open on reports of Israeli military exercises that American officials said may have been preparation for some type of attack on Iran, according to TradeTheNews.com.

Crude added $2.69 to settle at $134.62, and the gains came even after China said Thursday it would begin rolling back government fuel subsidies and ahead of Sunday's summit in Saudi Arabia, which is scheduled to discuss ways to rein in oil's record run.

United States Oil Fund (amex: USO - news - people), an exchange-traded vehicle that invests in crude and other oil products, added 2.2%.

Financials were lower from the start, on market speculation that Merrill Lynch (nyse: MER - news - people) could issue a profit warning, and more questions for the regional banks.

The Merrill rumor had little teeth, but shares of the brokerage were still down 4.2% heading into the close, while regional banks like Ohio's Fifth Third Bancorp (nasdaq: FITB - news - people) and Huntington Bancshares (nasdaq: HBAN - news - people) were in positive territory despite doubts about the entire sector.

Meanwhile, tech stocks were laid low, with Yahoo! (nasdaq: YHOO - news - people) down 3.3% on reports it may move forward with a reorganization plan after its fruitless negotiations with Microsoft.



3:00 PM ET, Down Go The Automakers: Higher oil prices were pressuring U.S. markets Friday, but by the afternoon the bigger story was the credit ratings of Detroit's auto industry, and Wall Street was reeling.
Standard & Poor's put the corporate credit ratings of Ford Motor (nyse: F - news - people), General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people), and Chrysler on watch negative, citing "the need to evaluate the financial damage being inflicted by deteriorating U.S. industry conditions."

Record oil prices have weighed on the automakers, forcing them to shift focus away from gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs and toward more fuel-efficient vehicles like cars and crossovers.

This week alone, GM has reined in plans for a major overhaul of its SUV and truck lines, and Ford announced Friday it will delay a planned new version of its popular F-150 pickup due to slumping truck demand.

S&P said all three automakers have ample liquidity for the remainder of 2008, but cautioned that worsening industry fundamentals could "reduce liquidity to undesirable levels by the second half of 2009."

Also included in the negative watch placement were the finance units of the three--Ford Motor Credit, DaimlerChrysler Financial Services Americas, and GM's 49%-owned GMAC.

Shares of GM were down $1.03, or 7.0%, to $13.76 Friday afternoon, while Ford was off 53 cents, or 8.4%, to $5.79.

Oil prices fell sharply from session highs, but crude was still up $1.93 to $133.86, after reports of Israeli military exercises that American officials suspect could be rehearsals for some type of bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Stocks were at lows not seen since March, as the Dow lost 218 points, or 1.8%, to 11,845, the S&P 500 fell 26 points, or 1.9%, to 1,317, and the Nasdaq dropped 60 points, or 2.5%, to 2,402.

Earlier in the day the financial sector had been in focus, on speculation Merrill Lynch (nyse: MER - news - people) could issue a profit warning.

While the chatter was unsubstantiated, its still contributed to a 5.0% decline in the firm's share price, which fell $1.90 to $35.79.

Meanwhile, investors gave less credence to a Merrill report on the regional banking sector, which the brokerage said is in "capitulation mode."

Shares of Ohio-based Fifth Third Bancorp (nasdaq: FITB - news - people) were up 51 cents, or 5.2%, to $10.26, despite this week's dividend cut, while North Carolina's BB&T (nyse: BBT - news - people) added 38 cents, or 1.6%, to $24.73, after suggesting it could boost its dividend, and Ohio's Huntington Bancshares (nasdaq: HBAN - news - people) soared $1.35, or 26.2%, to $6.49, even with credit losses now expected to come in at the higher end of previous forecasts.



1:25 PM ET, Banking Sector Flattens European Markets: European markets closed down Friday, as Barclays wilted after it was reported that Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group may support it with an investment amounting to nearly $1 billion.

Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.5%, while France's CAC-40 closed down 1.8% and Germany's DAX closed down 2.1%. The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx index of 50 leading shares fell 1.7%, to 3,426.58 points.

Subprime-hit Barclays (nyse: BCS - news - people) reversed early gains to fall 2.1% after sources said Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (other-otc: SMFJY - news - people) may invest about $926 million in Britain's third-largest bank. The market received the news as a signal that another troubled Western lender needed to turn to Asia or the Middle East for funding. Barclays closed down 2.4%, or 7.50 pence (15 cents), to 308.25 pence ($6.08), in trading in London.

Banks fell, as the one-week dollar Libor rates surged 39 basis points at the daily fixing, while one-week euro rates jumped 30 basis points, underlining that the credit crisis is far from over.

Unemployment figures added to the gloomy sentiment in Europe. Italian unemployment hit a seasonally adjusted 6.5% in the first quarter, above all forecasts. France's unemployment, though, fell to 7.2% in the first-quarter, its lowest level in 25 years. But a French think tank, INSEE, predicted that French growth would slow to 1.6% this year, its slowest pace in five years.

But not all was unfavorable news in the market, however, as the British home builders moved up, after Building Magazine reported a deal between embattled Barratt Developments and its creditor banks, which sent shares in the firm soaring. Barratt (other-otc: BTDPF - news - people) stock closed up 12.14 pence (24 cents), or 9.50 pence (19 cents), to 87.75 pence ($1.73), in London.

In other business news, Veolia Environment (nyse: VE - news - people), the world's largest publicly traded water company, said the stronger euro and surging oil prices will make its net income growth objective of 10.0% more difficult to achieve this year.

L'Oreal (other-otc: LRLCY - news - people), the French cosmetics giant, announced it was launching a new share buyback program of 1.25 billion euros ($1.95 billion), after a similar program launched in June 2007 had been carried out in full. The announcement follows similar initiatives from Daimler (nyse: DAI - news - people)and BASF (other-otc: BASFY - news - people).

Thomson Financial and Reuters contributed to this article.



12:20 PM ET, Street Crumbles On Crude: A surge in oil prices put the clamps on equity investors Friday in New York, and stocks were reeling at midday.
After falling nearly $5.00 Thursday when China said it would hike government-subsidized fuel prices, crude recouped nearly that entire loss Friday morning, on reports of Israeli military exercises that American officials suspect could be rehearsals for some type of bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

The price of crude surged $4.20 before midday, climbing to $136.13 a barrel ahead of Sunday's key summit in Saudi Arabia between producer and consumer nations.

On what was expected to be a volatile day for stocks due to expiration of options and futures, the market was moving in only one direction: down.

The Dow lost 132 points, or 1.1%, to 11,931, while the S&P 500 fell 15 points, or 1.1%, to 1,328, and the Nasdaq dropped 43 points, or 1.7%, to 2,420.

Financial stocks were in duress, after trader chatter surfaced early in the day said Merrill Lynch (nyse: MER - news - people) could issue a profit warning and take additional mortgage-related write-downs in the second quarter.

Shares of Merrill fell $1.16, or 3.1%, to $36.53, and its fellow brokers were also firmly in the red, as were the major banks.

Meanwhile, investors were also putting little stock in Merrill's call on the regional banks, sending shares higher even after the brokerage downgraded several of the companies in the space.

Among the gainers were Ohio's Fifth Third Bancorp (nasdaq: FITB - news - people), up 87 cents, or 8.9%, to $10.62, despite slashing its dividend Wednesday, and North Carolina's BB&T (nyse: BBT - news - people), which gained $1.29, or 5.3%, to $25.64, after it said Thursday it is likely to boost its dividend.

The biggest winner was Huntington Bancshares (nasdaq: HBAN - news - people), up $1.50, or 29.3%, to $6.64, even after it said Thursday it expects credit losses for the second quarter to come in at the higher end of a prior forecast.

In deal news, Carlos Fernandez G., chairman and chief executive officer of Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo (other-otc: GPMCF - news - people), left the board of Anheuser-Busch (nyse: BUD - news - people), as the American brewer is mulling a $46.4 billion bid from Belgium's InBev (other-otc: INBVF - news - people).

Anheuser already owns 50% of Modelo, and Fernandez's departure from its board suggests it may be moving toward acquiring the remainder in an effort to block InBev's by boosting its value. (See: "Modelo Frosty To Anheuser-Busch")

Alternatively, InBev may have also reached out to family-run Modelo.

Shares of Anheuser Busch gained 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $61.17 Friday, but were still 5.9% below the $65.00 offer price. (See: "InBev Cracks Open Bid For Bud")

Reuters contributed to this article.



11:15 AM ET, Oil Pop Pressures Stocks: Wall Street opened lower Friday, as oil prices recouped a chunk of Thursday's losses and sent equity markets sliding.
Crude was up $3.26, to $135.19 a barrel, on reports Israel has carried out military exercises that could be rehearsals for some type of attack on Iranian nuclear installations.

The geopolitical tension erased almost the entire decline that came from Thursday's reports China would raise government-subsidized fuel prices by 8.0% Friday. (See: "China Gives The World An Oil Break")

Stocks started the day on the down side, as the Dow Jones industrial average fell 106 points, or 0.9%, to 11,957; the Standard & Poor's 500 lost 12 points, or 0.9%, to 1,331; and the Nasdaq slid 25 points, or 1.0%, to 2,437.

Regional banks were under pressure again, after Merrill Lynch said the sector is in capitulation mode. The critical report comes at the end of a volatile week, as the banks stumbled when Ohio's Fifth Third Bancorp (nasdaq: FITB - news - people) slashed its dividend Wednesday but then surged when North Carolina's BB&T (nyse: BBT - news - people) said Thursday it is likely to raise its dividend. Shares of Fifth Third added 10 cents, or 1.0%, to $9.85, in early trading, while BB&T lost 43 cents, or 1.8%, to $23.92.

Another part of the financial sector also took a hit Friday, as Moody's cut its ratings on bond insurers Ambac Financial Group (nyse: ABK - news - people) and MBIA (nyse: MBI - news - people). The move was widely expected, with Moody's having already threatened that such action was likely and Standard & Poor's having made a similar cut. Shares of Ambac, which was cut to Aa3, from Aaa, were down 8 cents, or 3.9%, to $1.95; MBIA, which Moody's cut to A2, from Aa, fell 57 cents, or 8.8%, to $5.88.

Yahoo! (nasdaq: YHOO - news - people) started the day lower, on reports the company may reorganize in the wake of its fruitless dalliance with Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people), according to TradeTheNews.com. The news comes amidst a flurry of executives leaving the company--and with Carl Icahn's proxy fight looming. (See: "Icahn To Yahoo!: It's On") Shares of Yahoo! fell 32 cents, or 1.4%, to $22.41.



10:48 AM ET, Banking Sector Drags Europe Down: European markets fell slightly in midday trading Friday, as Barclays wilted after it was reported that Japan's Sumitomo Mutsui Financial Group may support it with an investment amounting to nearly $1 billion.

Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.5%, while France's CAC-40 dropped 0.4%, and Germany's DAX declined by 0.5%. The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx index of 50 leading shares fell 1.6%, to 3,430.95 points.

Subprime-hit Barclays (nyse: BCS - news - people) reversed early gains to fall 2.1% after sources said Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (other-otc: SMFJY - news - people) may invest about $926 million in Britain's third-largest bank. The market received the news as a signal that another troubled Western lender needed to turn to Asia or the Middle East for funding. Barclays shares fell 2.8%, or 8.75 pence (17 cents), to 307.00 pence ($6.06), in trading in London.

Banks fell, as the one-week dollar Libor rates surged 39 basis points at the daily fixing, while one-week euro rates jumped 30 basis points, underlining that the credit crisis is far from over.

Unemployment figures added to the gloomy sentiment in Europe. Italian unemployment hit a seasonally adjusted 6.5% in the first quarter, above all forecasts. France's unemployment, though, fell to 7.2% in the first-quarter, its lowest level in 25 years. But a French think tank, INSEE, predicted that French growth would slow to 1.6% this year, its slowest pace in five years.

But not all was unfavorable news in the market, however, as the British home builders moved up, after Building Magazine reported a deal between embattled Barratt Developments and its creditor banks, which sent shares in the firm soaring. Barratt (other-otc: BTDPF - news - people) stock rose 13.10 pence (26 cents), or 10.25 pence (20 cents), to 88.50 pence ($1.74), in midday trading in London.

In other business news, Veolia Environment (nyse: VE - news - people), the world's largest publicly traded water company, said the stronger euro and surging oil prices will make its net income growth objective of 10.0% more difficult to achieve this year.

L'Oreal (other-otc: LRLCY - news - people), the French cosmetics giant, announced it was launching a new share buyback program of 1.25 billion euros ($1.95 billion), after a similar program launched in June 2007 had been carried out in full. The announcement follows similar initiatives from Daimler (nyse: DAI - news - people)and BASF (other-otc: BASFY - news - people).


--Thomson Financial and Reuters contributed to this article.



6:40 AM ET, China's Gas Price Hike Juices Shanghai, Not Oil Cos.: China's overnight decision to hike gas prices at the pump lifted the stock market in Shanghai and kept Hong Kong from sliding on Friday, but the move had little bearing on the other regional markets, all of which lost ground on lingering fears over the health of the U.S. financial sector.
The Shanghai Composite index soared by more than 5% in the morning but lost momentum in the afternoon to close 3.0% higher, at 2,831.74, led by oil, refinery and power stocks. The policy shift had widely been expected to be delayed until after the Beijing Olympics in August; the steepness of the price increase also surprised analysts, indicating that the Chinese government may view energy shortages as a greater threat than inflation. Beginning Friday, retail gasoline and diesel prices in China will cost between 17% and 18% more than previously. Jet fuel prices are scheduled to rise even more, by about 25%, or 1,500 yuan ($217.39) per metric ton.

Hong Kong's China-induced morning rally evaporated; by day's end, the benchmark Hang Seng index was down 0.2%, at 22,745.60. China's largest refiner, China Petroleum and Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) (nyse: SNP - news - people), finished the day only moderately higher under the circumstances, up 1.1%, at 8.08 Hong Kong dollars ($1.04), having risen to as much as 8.46 Hong Kong dollars ($1.08). Analysts wondered to what degree the price hike would actually translate into profits. PetroChina (nyse: PTR - news - people) narrowed its gain to 1.55%, at 10.46 Hong Kong dollars ($1.34), down from an intraday high of 10.90 Hong Kong dollars ($1.40).

Elsewhere, the mood was downbeat. Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average headed down by 1.3%, to close at 13,942.08, unable to shake off contagion effects from the volatility and general weakness in the United States. The broader Topix shed 1.4%, to 1,356.74.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (other-otc: SMFJY - news - people) was under the spotlight as the result of a news item in the Nikkei Business Daily that its core banking unit is in the final stages of negotiations to provide 100 billion yen ($927.0 million) in fresh capital to British bank Barclays (nyse: BCS - news - people). Its shares lost 1.45%, to 883,000 yen ($8,189.20).

But the Chinese gasoline price hikes on and their possible dampening effect on global crude prices caused jitters among Japan's major oil and commodity stocks. Gas and oil field developer Inpex Holdings lost 3.7%, to 1.29 million yen ($11,960.50); Nippon Oil (other-otc: NPOIF - news - people) slipped by 1.5%, at 708 yen ($6.57). So was Sumitomo Metal Mining, which registered a decline of 2.6%, to 1,654 yen ($15.35).

Australia was similarly afflicted by Wall Street's ills. This and increasing worries over the effects of high oil prices and high interest rates on consumer spending conspired to drag down the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index by 1.5%, to 5,288.30.

South Korean and Taiwanese markets had losses as well, though Seoul's setback was milder. Korea's KOSPI index finished 0.6% off, at 1,731.00. Taiwan's Taiex weighted index ended 1.8% down, at 7,902.44. But Singapore managed to edge higher; its Straits Times index crept up by 0.3%, to close back above the 3,000 level, at 3,001.81.

In India, where the government announced that weekly inflation had reached a 13-year high of 11.05%, the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex index reacted with a fall of 3.4%, to below the 15,000 mark, at 14,571.29, representing a closing low for the year. Investors now see a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India as inevitable.

cumprimentos
SCosta

Empresários europeus preocupados com subida dos juros


Gestores de topo das maiores empresas da União Europeia temem perder exportações e competitividade global. Riscos que associam à subida dos juros anunciada pelo BCE para Julho.

Luís Reis Ribeiro

Depois dos políticos, é agora a vez das grandes companhias europeias se colocarem na linha da frente das críticas ao Banco Central Europeu (BCE).

De acordo com a edição de hoje do "Financial Times" (FT), os presidentes executivos (CEO) de algumas das maiores empresas europeias confessaram-se muito preocupados com o facto de o BCE estar a preparar uma subida de juros no início do próximo mês. Se os juros subirem, como se prevê, o euro tenderá a acompanhar em alta – quando a taxa de juro da zona euro aumenta, significa que é mais rentável investir em euros do que fazer aplicações em dólares –, o que levará a dificuldades ainda maiores nas exportações, defenderam os CEO de empresas como a Siemens, Adidas ou a petrolífera austríaca, OMV. Além disso, os gestores sublinharam que a prioridade, neste momento de maior fraqueza das economias mais desenvolvidas, deve ser o crescimento e a competitividade, e não tanto a inflação.

"Pensamos que as taxas de juro na Europa ainda estão altas e que temos de ter muito cuidado com os aumentos adicionais", alertou Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, presidente executivo da OMV. Peter Löscher, CEO da Siemens, um dos maiores exportadores da Europa, não tem dúvidas de que quanto mais subirem as taxas de juro na zona euro pior para o negócio de quem exporta. "As taxas de câmbio também são determinadas pelos bancos centrais... Criar-se-ia um desequilíbrio nas taxas de câmbio", atirou.

Os bancos centrais, como o BCE, rejeitam liminarmente esta relação causa-efeito entre a condução da política monetária e o valor das moedas. Mas vários economistas ouvidos pelo Diário Económico aceitam que o nível da taxa de juro é bastante importante para a formação das taxas de câmbio. Por exemplo, comparando os valores médios da Euribor (remuneração das aplicações em euros) e da Libor (em dólares) é fácil constatar que nunca foi tão rentável investir em euros como actualmente: a Euribor média a três meses  referente às duas primeiras semanas de Junho pagava 4,9% ao ano, ou seja, 80% mais do que a taxa equivalente em dólares, que estava em 2,75%. Este é o móbil para que muitos investidores corram a comprar activos denominados em euros, fazendo subir o valor da moeda única.

Herbert Hainer, CEO da Adidas, admitiu ao FT que está bastante preocupado com o risco da economia europeia entrar em estagflação (inflação muito alta com crescimento baixo ou negativo). "Este é definitivamente o caso. Se tivéssemos uma estagnação na economia mundial isso certamente que também nos prejudicaria porque haveria mais desempregados e mais incerteza para os consumidores, o que definitivamente teria um efeito no nosso negócio", explicou o líder do fabricante alemão de artigos desportivos.

Ainda de acordo com o FT, as três empresas confirmam estar a sentir o aumento dos custos à conta do choque nos preços da energia, mas mostraram-se "cautelosos" com a passagem desse agravamento para os seus clientes. "Não é uma tarefa fácil", disse Hainer.

Em todo o caso, uma subida de taxas pelo BCE "irá, claro, abrandar o crescimento na Europa" e, logo, arrefecer a expansão dos mercados da energia, observou Ruttenstorfer, do grupo OMV.

 

Portugal PSI20 9583 (-0.77%) P. Telecom 7.300 ( 1.95 %) Altri 2.750 (-4.01%)

O PSI20 prolongou a underperformance que tem caracterizado a recente fase de mercado, apesar da recuperação de alguns títulos como a Sonae SGPS e a P. Telecom. Para além dos factores estruturais que têm penalizado a bolsa nacional (e que foram abordados no documento A Semana), uma das razões para a underperformance de hoje deveu-se ao facto do mercado nacional estar desprovido dos motores da subida europeia: os sectores mineiro e o petrolífero (a única acção petrolífera, a Galp, não acompanhou a tendência do respectivo sector).
O sector das telecomunicações nacionais não reagiu significativamente à notícia reportada no semanário Sol que alguns accionistas da Zon Multimédia estão apreensivos em relação à perda da quota de mercado da empresa em favor do novo serviço da PT, o Meo. Este desagrado poderá, segundo o mesmo jornal, favorecer uma eventual fusão com a Sonaecom. As acções destas empresas encerraram o dia com variações contidas.
A Altri prolongou as perdas da semana passada. Desde o anúncio que as duas empresas finlandesa do sector, UPM e Stora Enso, informaram que os seus resultados iriam ser menores que o previsto, as acções da Altri recuaram cerca de 15%.
Outras small caps como a Portucel, a Teixeira Duarte e a Sonae Indústria também sofreram uma pressão vendedora, que foi agravada pela sua falta de liquidez.

Europa Ibex 12404 (-0.06%) Dax 6589 ( 0.17%) Cac 4511 ( 0.05%)

Os mercados europeus alcançaram subidas tímidas, com diversos sectores a não acompanharem a recuperação.
As acções petrolíferas foram uma das principais responsáveis da recuperação dos mercados europeus. O DJ Stoxx Oil/Gas beneficiou do facto da conferência realizada este fim-de-semana na Arábia Saudita não tenha resultado numa decisão concreta por parte da OPEP em aumentar a sua produção.
Pela negativa, as acções bancárias estiveram novamente pressionadas, especialmente as que estão mais expostas ao mercado de crédito.
Todavia, nem todas as notícias relativas ao sector bancário foram negativas. Em Espanha, o Banco Popular foi a grande estrela após ter sido oficializado o interesse da Blueprime, um veículo financeiro dum grupo de empresários mexicanos, em adquirir 20% do banco espanhol.
Alguns sectores mais defensivos como o farmacêutico e o de consumos não cíclicos também recolheram as preferências dos investidores.
A nível macroeconómico, a queda do Índice alemão de Confiança Económica IFO foi superior ao previsto (101.3 vs 102.5), mas situa-se a um nível bastante superior ao que a actual conjuntura económica poderia indiciar.

Wall Street S&P 1319 ( 0.08%) Nasdaq100 1918 (-0.50%) Dow Jones 11839 (-0.03%)

As primeiras horas da sessão estavam a ser marcadas pela escassez de notícias relevantes. Os mercados americanos tentavam alcançar uma tendência definida. As fortes quebras de 6ª feira parecem não ter conseguido atrair as compras de investidores de curto prazo, que geralmente afluem ao mercado após dias com desvalorizações acentuadas. 

   

Agora ou nunca


Apesar de esperarmos, há mais de uma semana, uma forte retoma, também é certo que advertimos para a possibilidade de os índices regressarem aos mínimos anuais e, salvo algumas excepções (Dax, Nikkei, Nasdaq 100 e S&P500), os principais índices directores estão justamente às portas dos mínimos de Janeiro e/ou Março. Ainda que pareça repetitivo dizer isto, a sobrevenda começa a ser tão extrema que aquilo que nos está a ser indicado é que se há coisa que não faz sentido de momento é vender nos níveis actuais, e muito menos abrir posições curtas/baixistas, pois quando menos esperarmos vai registar-se uma forte retoma, essencialmente propiciada pelo encerramento de posições curtas. Não podemos descartar a possibilidade de ocorrer uma ligeira intensificação das quedas, mas é muito provável que, caso aconteça, mesmo que seja para os índices marcarem novos mínimos anuais, poderá ser para construir uma forte divergência altista de início da recuperação. Sempre se disse que é exactamente nos períodos de tendência baixista que se produzem as retomas mais fortes contra a tendência principal... aquilo que é conhecido como "dentes de serra".

Ministro alemão das Finanças rejeita aumento de taxas básicas do BCE



BERLIM (AFP) - O ministro alemão de Finanças, Peer Steinbruck, rejeitou neste sábado um aumento da taxa básica do Banco Central Europeu (BCE), por considerar que tal medida contribuirá para reforçar a desaceleração econômica atual, afirma o jornal Spiegel na sua edição de segunda-feira.

"O BCE deverá levar em conta o fato de que corre o risco de enviar um sinal errado ao aumentar as taxas de juros, pois isso poderia reforçar a desaceleração econômica", disse o ministro social-democrata, em uma declaração que surpreendeu, já que o governo alemão é um dos os maiores defensores da independência do BCE.

Na última quarta-feira, o presidente do BCE, Jean-Claude Trichet, disse que o banco irá aumentar a sua principal taxa no próximo dia 3, como forma de combater os riscos de inflação.

Economic Calendar
Date Time:GMT Currency Indicator Actual Forecast Prior   
22/06/2008 23:01 GBP Rightmove House Price Index m/m -1.2%  1.2%   
22/06/2008 23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions q/q -15.1 -17.0 -12.9   
23/06/2008 01:30 AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m -1.6%  -0.6%   
23/06/2008 03:04 NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 5.9%  8.2%   
23/06/2008 07:30 EUR German Services PMI (p) 53.3 53.1 53.8   
23/06/2008 07:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (p) 52.3 53.2 53.6   
23/06/2008 08:00 EUR Services PMI (p) 49.5 50.5 50.6   
23/06/2008 08:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (p) 49.1 50.2 50.5   
23/06/2008 08:00 EUR German Ifo Business Expectations Index 94.7 96.3 97.3   
23/06/2008 08:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index 101.3 102.5 103.5   
23/06/2008 20:05 CAD Gov Council Member Kennedy Speaks     
24/06/2008 06:00 EUR German Consumer Confidence 3.9 4.6 4.7   
24/06/2008 06:45 EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 2.0% 0.6% -0.9%   
24/06/2008 08:00 CHF Consumption Indicator 1.910  2.159   
24/06/2008 08:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 28.0K  34.8K   
24/06/2008 13:00 USD National HPI Composite-20 y/y -15.3% -16.0% -14.3%   
24/06/2008 14:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index -12 -5 -3   
24/06/2008 14:00 USD House Price Index m/m -0.8% -0.5% -0.6%   
24/06/2008 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence 50.4 56.4 58.1   
24/06/2008 23:50 JPY Trade Balance 0.64T 0.41T 0.64T   
24/06/2008 23:50 JPY CSPI y/y 0.6% 0.5% 0.5%   
25/06/2008 08:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 0.3% -0.6%   
25/06/2008 08:30 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks     
25/06/2008 09:00 EUR Industrial New Orders m/m 2.5% -0.5% -1.2%   
25/06/2008 10:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Realized -9 -17 -14   
25/06/2008 12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.0% 0.0% -1.0%   
25/06/2008 12:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.9% -0.9% 1.9%   
25/06/2008 14:00 USD New Home Sales 512K 515K 525K   
25/06/2008 14:35 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.8M -0.1M -1.2M   
25/06/2008 18:09 USD Federal Funds Rate 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%   
25/06/2008 18:09 USD FOMC Statement     
25/06/2008 22:45 NZD Current Account -2.2B -1.7B -3.4B   
26/06/2008 00:00 AUD Leading Index m/m 0.3%  -0.4%   
26/06/2008 06:00 EUR German Import Price Index m/m 2.4% 1.5% 0.9%   
26/06/2008 08:00 EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 10.5% 10.4% 10.5%   
26/06/2008 08:34 GBP Business Investment q/q (r) -1.8% -1.4% -1.4%   
26/06/2008 08:45 GBP MPC Treasury Committee Hearings     
26/06/2008 12:30 USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 2.7% 2.6% 2.6%   
26/06/2008 12:30 USD Unemployment Claims 384K 375K 384K   
26/06/2008 12:30 USD Final GDP q/q 1.0% 1.0% 0.9%   
26/06/2008 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales 4.99M 4.96M 4.89M   
26/06/2008 14:35 USD Natural Gas Storage 90B 90B 57B   
26/06/2008 22:45 NZD Trade Balance -0.20B 0.15B -0.30B   
26/06/2008 22:45 NZD GDP q/q -0.3% -0.3% 0.8%   
26/06/2008 23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%   
26/06/2008 23:30 JPY Overall Household Spending y/y -3.2% -2.0% -2.7%   
26/06/2008 23:30 JPY National Core CPI y/y 1.5% 1.3% 0.9%   
26/06/2008 23:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y 1.3% 1.1% 0.9%   
26/06/2008 23:50 JPY Retail Sales y/y 0.2% -0.1% 0.1%   
26/06/2008 23:50 JPY Industrial Production m/m (p) 2.9% 2.5% -0.2%   
27/06/2008 08:00 EUR Current Account -0.3B  -13.2B   
27/06/2008 08:30 GBP Final GDP q/q 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%   
27/06/2008 08:30 GBP Current Account -8.4B -12.0B -12.2B   
27/06/2008 09:00 EUR Consumer Confidence -17 -16 -15   
27/06/2008 09:30 CHF Leading Index m/m 1.01 1.00 1.08   
27/06/2008 12:30 USD Personal Income m/m 1.9% 0.3% 0.3%   
27/06/2008 12:30 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.8% 0.7% 0.4%   
27/06/2008 12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%   
27/06/2008 12:30 CAD RMPI m/m 3.1% 5.1% 5.0%   
27/06/2008 12:30 CAD IPPI m/m 0.6% 1.2% 1.6%   
27/06/2008 13:55 USD Revised Michigan Sentiment 56.4 56.8 56.7   
29/06/2008 22:45 NZD Building Consents m/m   82.1%   
29/06/2008 23:01 GBP Consumer Confidence  -31 -29   
29/06/2008 23:15 JPY Manufacturing PMI   47.7   
30/06/2008 00:30 AUD TDMI Inflation Gauge m/m   0.3%   
30/06/2008 01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit m/m  0.6% 0.4%   
30/06/2008 03:00 NZD Business Confidence   -49.7   
30/06/2008 05:00 JPY Housing Starts y/y  -3.7% -8.7%   
30/06/2008 08:30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m  7.0B 7.3B   
30/06/2008 08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals  52K 58K   
30/06/2008 08:30 GBP Index of Services 3m/3m  0.3% 0.5%   
30/06/2008 09:00 EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m  0.3% 0.5%   
30/06/2008 09:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y  3.9% 3.7%   
30/06/2008 12:30 CAD GDP m/m  0.3% -0.2%   
30/06/2008 13:45 USD Chicago PMI  48.2 49.1   
30/06/2008 23:30 AUD Manufacturing PMI   51.2   
30/06/2008 23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index  3 11   
30/06/2008 23:50 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index  8 12   
01/07/2008 01:30 JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y  0.7% 0.8%   
01/07/2008 04:30 AUD Cash Rate  7.25% 7.25%   
01/07/2008 04:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement     
01/07/2008 06:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices m/m  -1.1% -2.5%   
01/07/2008 06:00 EUR German Retail Sales m/m  0.8% -0.6%   
01/07/2008 06:30 AUD Index of Commodity Prices y/y   28.6%   
01/07/2008 07:30 CHF SVME PMI  55.1 55.7   
01/07/2008 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change  -15K 4K   
01/07/2008 08:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (r)  49.1 49.1   
01/07/2008 08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI  49.8 50.0   
01/07/2008 09:00 EUR Unemployment Rate  7.1% 7.1%   
01/07/2008 14:00 USD Construction Spending m/m  -0.5% -0.4%   
01/07/2008 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Index  48.6 49.6   
01/07/2008 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices  87.1 87.0   
01/07/2008 23:50 JPY Monetary Base y/y  0.0% -0.9%   
02/07/2008 01:30 AUD Retail Sales m/m  0.1% -0.2%   
02/07/2008 01:30 AUD Building Approvals m/m  -3.3% 7.8%   
02/07/2008 07:15 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks     
02/07/2008 08:30 GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q  5.4B 7.3B   
02/07/2008 08:30 GBP Construction PMI  43.1 43.9   
02/07/2008 09:00 EUR PPI m/m  0.9% 0.8%   
02/07/2008 11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y   45.6%   
02/07/2008 12:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change  -20K 40K   
02/07/2008 14:00 USD Factory Orders m/m  0.4% 1.1%   
02/07/2008 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories   0.8M   
02/07/2008 15:00 USD Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks     
02/07/2008 16:00 USD FOMC Member Mishkin Speaks     
02/07/2008 23:30 AUD Services PMI   49.7   
03/07/2008 01:30 AUD Trade Balance  -1.0B -1.0B   
03/07/2008 03:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index   1.0%   
03/07/2008 05:45 CHF CPI m/m  0.4% 0.8%   
03/07/2008 08:00 EUR Services PMI (p)  49.5 49.5   
03/07/2008 08:30 GBP Credit Conditions Survey     
03/07/2008 08:30 GBP Services PMI  49.5 49.8   
03/07/2008 09:00 EUR Retail Sales m/m  0.4% -0.7%   
03/07/2008 09:00 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Report     
03/07/2008 11:45 EUR Minimum Bid Rate  4.25% 4.00%   
03/07/2008 12:30 USD Unemployment Claims  384K 384K   
03/07/2008 12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m  0.3% 0.3%   
03/07/2008 12:30 USD Unemployment Rate  5.4% 5.5%   
03/07/2008 12:30 USD Nonfarm Employment Change  -60K -49K   
03/07/2008 12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference     
03/07/2008 14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite  51.1 51.7   
03/07/2008 14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage   90B   
04/07/2008 05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index  93.0% 92.8%   
04/07/2008 06:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance   -45.0B   
04/07/2008 10:00 EUR German Factory Orders m/m  0.8% -1.8%   
04/07/2008 14:00 CAD Ivey PMI

Portugal PSI20 9004 (-2.45%) Semapa 8.050 (-0.37%) Zon Multimédia 5.450 (-8.09%)

O mercado nacional fechou novamente com perdas avultadas, terminando uma semana bastante difícil para os investidores.
O PSI20 mostrou toda a sua fragilidade ao acompanhar os índices europeus durante a manhã, mas mostrando-se incapaz de imitar a recuperação realizada na parte da tarde (ver Europa), apesar de algumas notícias positivas para algumas empresas.
Tal como na Europa, os bancos estiveram particularmente pressionados, terminando com desvalorizações superiores a 2%.
A cotação da Galp não reflectiu a recomendação da JP Morgan de aproveitar as recentes quedas para estabelecer uma posição no título. O banco americano atribuiu à Galp um preço alvo para o final de 2008 de EUR.18.00.
A EDP Renováveis anunciou que reforçou a capacidade de produção de energia eólica nos EUA para 1.556 megawatts (MW), através da inauguração de um novo parque eólico. Uma outra notícia positiva foi a entrevista do Presidente da Jerónimo Martins que referiu que as vendas da cadeia Pingo Doce estão a ter um bom desempenho não obstante o momento delicado que a economia nacional atravessa.

Europa Ibex 12089 ( 0.10%) Dax 6422 (-0.58%) Cac 4397 (-0.65%)

A primeira parte do dia foi marcada por uma pressão vendedora constante que atingiu a quase totalidade dos sectores. A inversão da tendência negativa foi desencadeada pelos bons dados económicos nos EUA. A recuperação dos índices europeus só não foi mais acentuada devido à subida do petróleo que se aproximou dos 142 USD/barril. De recordar que ontem a Líbia ameaçou cortar a sua produção e o Presidente da OPEP afirmou que o petróleo poderá atingir os 170 USD/barril durante este Verão.
O sector financeiro foi um dos principais alvos das vendas dos investidores, que foi abalado novamente por notícias adversas.
O sector tecnológico europeu foi influenciado pela queda de ontem do Nasdaq e pelo profit warning da Sony Ericsson. A empresa nipo-sueca anunciou que os seus resultados trimestrais irão ser negativamente condicionados pelo arrefecimento das compras de telemóveis assim como pelos atrasos na entrega de encomendas. Esta notícia penalizou igualmente as acções das concorrentes Nokia e Alcatel Lucent.
A apreensão em relação à condição económica da Zona Euro também foi bastante visível durante a sessão, tendo algumas acções mais sensíveis aos ciclos económicos sofrido quedas acentuadas. (Esta apreensão foi reforçada pela diminuição das vendas a retalho na Europa. O índice de vendas a retalho na Zona Euro recuou para os 44.0 em Junho, face aos 53,1 observados em Maio. O exemplo do Carrefour foi o mais evidente, tendo a acção recuado 7.84%, após ter anunciado que os lucros operacionais vão aumentar menos do que o antecipado.

Wall Street S&P 1281 (-0.14%) Nasdaq100 1847 (-0.45%) Dow Jones 11389 (- 0.56%)

Os mercados americanos negociavam em baixa ligeira, devido à subida do petróleo, embora seja de realçar os bons dados económicos que foram divulgados.
Antes da abertura, foi publicado o índice de inflação PCE, o preferido da FED, que cresceu 3.10% em Junho. Se se excluírem os itens mais voláteis, o crescimento do PCE ficou-se pelos 2.50%. O rendimento das famílias aumentou 1.90% (as estimativas apontavam para um aumento de 0.40%) e o seu consumo 0.80% (as previsões eram de 0.70%).
O índice de confiança do consumidor de Junho, elaborado pela Universidade de Michigan, situou-se nos 56.4, sensivelmente igual ao previsto (56.7). 

   
cumprimentos

"Commodities" perto de "inversão dramática" após melhor semestre em 35 anos
As commodities encaminham-se para o melhor primeiro semestre dos últimos 35 anos. Mas, os próximos seis meses podem não ser tão compensadores para quem investe. Os preços recorde do petróleo, do cobre e de outras matérias-primas ameaçam travar a procura e os mercados podem assistir a uma inversão dramática da tendência.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Paulo  Moutinho
[email protected]


As "commodities" encaminham-se para o melhor primeiro semestre dos últimos 35 anos. Mas, os próximos seis meses podem não ser tão compensadores para quem investe. Os preços recorde do petróleo, do cobre e de outras matérias-primas ameaçam travar a procura e os mercados podem assistir a uma inversão dramática da tendência.

De acordo com os dados da agência Bloomberg, as 19 "commodities" que integram o índice Reuters/Jefferies CRB dispararam 29% neste primeiro semestre, conseguindo o melhor registo desde 1973. Esta subida é também maior do que qualquer outra verificada no segundo semestre, nas últimas cinco décadas.

O forte aumento dos preços das matérias-primas está a provocar uma quebra na procura, nomeadamente de gasolina nos EUA. Na Índia, a procura por ouro afundou mais de 50% quando comparada com o semestre homólogo, um efeito da elevada valorização deste metal precioso.

"Estamos próximos de algum tipo de juízo final" nas "commodities", afirmou Michael Aronstein, da Marketfield Asset Management. "Tenho estado positivo nos investimentos nas 'commodities' nos últimos sete anos e esta é a primeira vez que penso poder haver uma inversão dramática, não apenas uma correcção" acrescentou o responsável à Bloomberg.

Chris Rupkey, economista-chefe do Bank of Tokyo – Mitsubishi UFJ, prevê que o elevado custo da energia vão colocar um travão à procura por parte dos consumidores e fazer recuar os preços no segundo semestre, isto depois do petróleo ter duplicado de valor no último ano. O WTI, negociado em Nova Iorque, atingiu, na sexta-feira, um novo recorde nos 142,99 dólares.