Historic/historic/historic. I am almost never at a loss for speech or
words! LOL However I feel that way now with this string of sentiment
readings and other data like the HUGE insider selling for weeks and weeks,
the very bearish money/liquidity data, Inv Intell Bull/Bear sentiment
recently showing a 16 year extreme(yep back to 1987), and an all time
record of "buying climaxes" last week which has come on the heels of 8 out
of 10 weeks with over 100 per week(this is a lot!). And this morning we top
it off with the 71% AAII Bulls and only 9% Bears! Let me give you some more
perspective on these extremes:
1. This is an ALL TIME extreme of AAII "Bears minus Bulls"!
2. Only 2 times in history has AAII Bears-Bulls been close to this
extreme, Jan 6 2000(Dow
high)and Aug 21 1987(remember that time frame?)
3. Only 5 times in history have we seen "single digit" Bears. One was
Aug 21 1987(that date again!). And then 4 of them from late Sep to early
Nov of 2000(major topping action)
I almost find it hard to believe how Bearish IMO this may turn out to
be, because it seems "so obvious" to me, yet the masses appear to be
believers to a degree RARELY seen. Put a monthly Naz chart on your computer
screen, take a few steps back, close your eyes and clear your mind. Okay,
the stage is set. Now look at that chart and the incredible decline and
devastation with the decline of over FOUR THOUSAND points from above 5100
to near 1000. Now imagine someone telling you we are seeing sentiment
readings, with a paltry rally(same as Bear rallies seen last 3 years) off
the lows, that exceed the extremes of the past SEVENTEEN years, even the
extremes in some of these cases seen during one of the ALL TIME
BUBBLE/MANIA HIGHS, and it is happening NOW. Sorry, I have to try to put
this in perspective and it is not easy, it is historic and frankly mind
boggling to me. Maybe we do a large corrective rally here, maybe "everyone"
is right and we see a retest of the rally highs in "some indices" going
into early July. But IMO "borrowed time" has never had more meaning.
My main point is be careful out there. Rarely have readings like we
have now been seen, and I would suggest not to underestimate this data, as
I sense a hugely critical juncture at hand here. Best of luck in the "hot
summer" brewing ahead.
"The point at which a competitor is pursuing the best possible strategy, given the strategies of the other participants" - John F. Nash
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