Encontrei esta mensagem do JN no Caldeirão de Bolsa! Isto é consistente com o que eu escrevi lá em cima. Podemos mesmo estar a preparar uma bolha das valente... ;-) (no mínimo voltávamos aos 11750 num espaço de 2-3 anos)
Passo a transcrever (pena não ter os valores para 1920 e 1860):
IMPORTANT LONG-TERM BUY SIGNAL DecisionPoint
We can see on the charts below that the monthly PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) bottomed in April. This is an important long-term technical buy signal. We note that this is the second lowest monthly PMO bottom in nearly 70 years, with only two other PMO bottoms that come close to this level -- they were in 1942 and 1974, both of which preceded major secular bull market runs.
Two data points are statistically meaningless, but it is the best we can do with the data available. But, even though a statistician might scoff, I personally think this is important evidence that we should consider. An important opposing point, the 1942 and 1974 bottoms were also accompanied by extremely low valuations. Nevertheless, there are long-term technical signs that the market may be headed higher. If the SPX were to decisively break out of the trading range and above the long-term head and shoulders neckline, it would be the final technical event needed to cancel the bearish case for the time being. A break out of the trend channel would not be conclusive by itself.
It does not seem reasonable to me that we are beginning a secular bull market with valuations in the stratosphere, but a cyclical bull market is not out of the question. Looking at intermediate-term indicators (not shown) the market is extremely overbought, and it seems unlikely that it can power through all that overhead resistance without consolidating or correcting first.
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J.N.
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