- EUR/USD may tick up to 1.1460/70 briefly, but expect further downmove to 1.1400 - 1.1380 next
FX Snapshots: (June 26, 2003, New York Open 0855 EST, 1455 CET )
- EUR/USD fell even further in Europe and has been to as low as 1.1429, within the ideal 1.1450 - 1.1420 downside projection after the rate cut. A small uptick to 1.1460/70 may be seen from here, then expect further declines to 1.1400 area thereafter. Support may appear at these lower levels, and the currency will initiate a new upcycle thereafter. For now, the longer-term positive outlook of further rally to to 1.21 - 1.22 remains. But we will start reassessing those assumptions if the sell-off takes out 1.1300. GBP/USD is seeing a 1.6600 - 1.6585 retest, per expectations. There may be a small uptick to 1.6680 area from here, then a final downmvoe to 1.6600 - 1.6585 area to complete the +test of the low+. The succesful attack of 1.6700 level earlier has probably laid the groundwork for a new upcycle, which of course needs a confirmatory +test of the low+ before the uptrend takes off. We would wait for lower levels to make another foray into the long side of the currency, looking still for 1.7000 then 1.7370 further out.
- USD/JPY rally approached 119.00 due to BoJ/MoF jawboning but may find resistance near 119.20 - 119.40 area. Our negative outlook has to wait until this rally peters out. Resisatnce at higher levels may cause a pullback to at least the area of 118.50 - 118.25 -- we will reassess the downside potential thereafter. USD/CAD rose sharply after support was found at 1.3389 which may go to as high as 1.3600 again. For now we will keep the negative short-term scenario of further decline to 1.3320, then 1.3000 further out. USD/CHF is playing out the one more uptick in this cycle. The currency has been to as high as 1.3480, well beyond the 1.3420 target. Allow for 1.3500. However, we will keep the longer-term negative view which should eventually reassert. Longer-term, the 1.25 - 1.24 targets should come into focus still.
- AUD/USD recovery to .6729 was very impressive -- the current pullback should find support at .6650/40 area. The longer-term scenario is unchanged -- a move to the .6740 top should come soon. A break of the .6740 top is still the ultimate confirmation that the uptrend has resumed. The rally should accelerate after a break, and .6850 remains the immediate objective in the very near-term. Further out, we are now factoring-in .7000 as target. NZD/USD found resistance at .5887 resistance and is testing the support at .5820 prior to a resumption of the rally. We still believe still that the uptrend is still set to resume further. The next upside target is still the top at .5890. Further out, the rally may bring the unit to .6050 - .6100 targets again. EUR/JPY found resistance at circa 136.60 and may fall towards 135.75 area. However, the longer-term outlook remains positive -- we expect the main bullish scenario to resume at some point nonetheless, and we will maintain 140.20 as immediate target, and 145.00 the destination further out.
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