Euro/US Dollar - June 26
Thursday, June 26, 2003
EUR/USD - (1.1430) 12:18 EST; 18:18 CET - EUR/USD fell even further in Europe and has been to as low as 1.1425, within the ideal 1.1450 - 1.1420 downside projection for the unit after the Fed rate cut. A small uptick to 1.1460/70 may be seen from here, but then expect further declines to 1.1400 - 1.1380 area thereafter. Support may appear at these lower levels, and the currency will initiate a new upcycle thereafter. For now, the longer-term positive outlook of further rally to to 1.21 - 1.22 remains. But we will start reassessing those assumptions if the sell-off takes out 1.1300.
Recommendations:
Buy at 1.1400. Initial stoploss: 1.1325. Trading objective: 1.1650.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen - June 26
Thursday, June 26, 2003
USD/JPY - (119:34) 12:27 EST; 18:27 CET - USD/JPY rally approached 119.00 due to BoJ/MoF jawboning but may find resistance near 119.20 - 119.40 area. Our negative outlook has to wait until this rally peters out. Resisatnce at higher levels may cause a pullback to at least the area of 118.50 - 118.25 -- we will reassess the downside potential thereafter.
Recommendations:
Short position (118.10) was taken out at 117.90 stop for a wash. Stand by.
US Dollar/Swiss Franc - June 26
Thursday, June 26, 2003
USD/CHF - (1.3478) 12:31 EST; 18:31 CET - USD/CHF is playing out the one more uptick in this cycle. The currency has been to as high as 1.3480, well beyond the 1.3420 target. Allow for 1.3500 - 1.3520. However, we will keep the longer-term negative view which should eventually reassert. Longer-term, the 1.25 - 1.24 targets should come into focus still.
Recommendations:
Sell at 1.3520. Initial stoploss: 1.3610. Trading objective: 1.3200.
British Pound/US Dollar - June 26
Thursday, June 26, 2003
GBP/USD - (1.6647) 12:34 EST; 18:34 CET - - GBP/USD is seeing a 1.6600 - 1.6580 retest, per expectations. There may be a small uptick to 1.6680 area from here, then a final downmvoe to 1.6600 - 1.6585 area to complete the +test of the low+. The succesful attack of 1.6700 level earlier has probably laid the groundwork for a new upcycle, which of course needs a confirmatory +test of the low+ before the uptrend takes off. We would wait for lower levels to make another foray into the long side of the currency, looking still for 1.7000 then 1.7370 further out.
Recommendations:
Buy at 1.6585. Initial stoploss: 1.6495. Trading objective: 1.6880.
Australian Dollar/US Dollar - June 26
Thursday, June 26, 2003
AUD/USD - .6649 (12:36 EST; 18:36 CET) - AUD/USD recovery to .6729 was very impressive -- the current pullback should find support at .6650/30 area. The longer-term scenario is unchanged -- a move to the .6740 top should come soon. A break of the .6740 top is still the ultimate confirmation that the uptrend has resumed. The rally should accelerate after a break, and .6850 remains the immediate objective in the very near-term. Further out, we still keep .7000 as target.
Recommendations:
Buy at .6635. Initial stoploss: .6565. Trading objective: .6850.
NZ Dollar/US Dollar - June 26
Thursday, June 26, 2003
NZD/USD - (0.5824) 12:41 EST; 18:41 CET - NZD/USD found resistance at .5887 resistance and is testing the support at .5820 - .5800 prior to a resumption of the rally. We still believe still that the uptrend is still set to resume further. The next upside target is still the top at .5890. Further out, the rally may bring the unit to .6050 - .6100 targets again.
Recommendations:
Buy at .5810. Initial stoploss: .5745. Trading objective: .6100.
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar - June 26
Thursday, June 26, 2003
USD/CAD - (1.3541) 12:43 EST; 18:43 CET - USD/CAD rose sharply after support was found at 1.3389 which may go to as high as 1.3600 again. For now we will keep the negative short-term scenario of further decline to 1.3320, then 1.3000 further out
Recommendations:
Sell at 1.3590. Initial stoploss: 1.3690. Trading objective: 1.3320.
Euro/Japanese Yen - June 26
Thursday, June 26, 2003
EUR/JPY - (136.49) 12:46 EST; 18:46 CET - EUR/JPY found resistance at circa 136.80 and may fall towards 135.75 area. However, the longer-term outlook remains positive -- we expect the main bullish scenario to resume at some point nonetheless, and we will maintain 140.20 as immediate target, and 145.00 the destination further out.
Recommendations:
Buy at 135.80. Initial stoploss: 134.75. Trading objective: 140.20.
Euro/Swiss Franc - June 26
Thursday, June 26, 2003
EUR/CHF - (1.5424) 12:50 EST; 18:50 CET - The cross has likely found a base at 1.5276 and may extend gains towards 1.5460 before meeting some degree of resistance. Expect a pullback thereafter perhaps to 1.5380/70 area. Nonetheless, the longer-term scenario still favors the upside. The next up swing targets 1.5540. A move to 1.5850 is the objective further out.
Recommendations:
Stand by.
Euro/British Pound - June 26
Thursday, June 26, 2003
EUR/GBP - (.6875) 12:54 EST; 18:54 CET - the cross fell further than the .6880 target andmay find a trough only at .6850/40 area. A base may form there, and we could see a test of the .7000 resistance thereafter.
Recommendations:
Stand by.
British Pound/Japanese Yen - June 26
Thursday, June 26, 2003
GBP/JPY - (198.51) 12:55 EST; 18:55 CET - the subsequent bounce took the cross beyond 197.00 and may loft the unit to 199.60 before fijding resistance. The new rally may develop into another test of the 200.00 resistance. The target further out is the area of 205.00 and 207.00 further out.
Recommendations:
Buy at 197.80. Initial stoploss: 196.50. Trading objective: 205.00.
British Pound/Swiss Franc - June 26
Thursday, June 26, 2003
GBP/CHF - (2.2424) 12:59 EST; 18:59 CET - the cross remain took off after clearing the 2.2200 resistance and should meet the intial 2.2500 target with no difficulty. We raise target to 2.2800 further out.
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