Ontem o comentador Mike Hartman do site www.financialsense.com, analisou o actual momento do mercado e o impacto das eleições de dia 2 de Novembro.
Mais um interessante Market WrapUp.
-------------------------------------------------------
WHY WAIT FOR THE ELECTIONS?
There are eight days of trading before voters head to the polls on November 2nd to decide the outcome of the Presidential elections, but it doesn’t look like the markets will be idle waiting for the elections to pass. The recent high level of complacency in the stock market has been confirming the popular belief that the U.S. stock markets and/or the U.S. dollar won’t go down ugly before the elections. In this time leading up to the vote I’ve been asking myself if the timing is really that simple or if the markets will have a mind of their own and begin to lean in the directions that we should see post election. Financial markets are normally friendly to the incumbent administration with a little easy money to juice a stock rally and keep the money flowing for everyone. Today we are seeing the dollar take another significant hit and stocks have declined seven out of the last ten sessions. If we continue to witness declining stock prices and a falling dollar through next week, Mr. Bush will face serious headwinds on Election Day.
Wall Street is absolutely littered with executives that have no ethics and no respect for the law…only lust for more money and power. It makes me sick!! You people that cook the books and lie are disgusting and I hope you jerks get some serious jail time!! With scandal after scandal, why shouldn’t investors lose confidence…nobody knows who to believe. Even the government statistics of CPI and PPI inflation along with employment and income data are being called into question. Some of the analysts I read are saying why bother with data that doesn’t paint the true picture. In the final analysis one must conclude that this game of bullishness and confidence is showing some major cracks, and for good reason. Once confidence and hope have left the stock market, there won’t be much to hold it up as economic momentum declines and corporate earnings flatten out.
The S&P 500 is trying desperately to hold onto the 1,100 level and just yesterday I was asking myself if the Dow Industrials would hold the August low close at 9,814. When stocks broke lower this morning and the Dow declined to 9,804 it looked like I would get a quick answer, but then the index bounced higher. It looks like stocks were rescued from the fire once again. By the closing bell the S&P 500 made it back to breakeven at 1,103, the NASDAQ Composite added ten points to 1,932 and the Dow Industrials fell ten points to close at 9,886. You still have time to get out with some of the gains left from 2003.
I have been saying that the stock rally of 2003 was a counter-trend rally in a primary bear market, or from an Elliott Wave perspective it was wave two up and we are now preparing for wave three down. This next wave down should be more powerful than the first leg down that included mostly the highly overvalued dot-com and technology sectors. The upcoming decline in stocks should drag all the big-blue Dow stocks down along with the high-flying technology shares. Just look at some of the recent damage to Fannie Mae, Merck, AIG, and today a big hit to Countrywide Financial after they reported third quarter earnings down 47% because refinancing activity was greatly reduced. Countrywide shares fell $4.33 or 11.5% to close at $33.17. The Mortgage Bankers Association said today their purchase index rose 5.8% and refinancing increased by 10.6%, but it’s been too little, too late to help Countrywide today and probably the economy tomorrow.
If you take a look at the one-year daily chart for the S&P500, you can see where support was broken at 1,100 today. At best, the bulls might be able to push the index back up to the 200-dma at 1,120 before the election, but the reports out of Wall Street aren’t helping much. On the daily chart the index is below both the 50 and 200-day moving averages, momentum is declining but not oversold, and we already broke below last month’s low. Why wait around for any more of an election rally?When looking at potential risk and reward I do not see a compelling reason to stay in the stock market except for commodity related issues.
O Clubeinvest.com informa que nenhuma da informação
aqui facultada deverá ser entendida como conselho ou recomendação
de qualquer tipo de transacção ou investimento.
