Aqui tens o excerto do texto em que é analisado o momento dos metais preciosos.
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Most serious players in the precious metals arena follow the Commitment of Traders (COT) report that shows the position size of the so-called speculators (specs) and the commercial players. Normally, the commercials never lose in their paper gold and silver trading versus the specs. Most recently, the specs are heavily committed to the long side of the metals and the commercials are holding the short positions. When open interest reaches high levels with the specs long, the commercials dump paper and whatever physical metal is needed to force liquidation by the specs. Once the specs start falling all over themselves trying to sell, the price plummets and the commercials cover their shorts for a profit and the whole process starts over again.
Yesterday looked like a classic time when the commercials were preparing for an attack on the metals, especially silver, but it didn’t happen today…actually, quite the contrary happened. Yesterday silver closed at $7.20, up $0.21 or 3% for the day, but the silver mining stocks didn’t confirm the move. In fact, SSRI, CDE, HL, and SIL all closed lower with PAAS adding only six cents. Today silver closed another 2% higher at $7.34, and the stocks confirmed with gains in the range of 4% to 6%. The stocks are still shy to reflect the current strength in the price of silver, but they are at least considering the possibility of a commercial short squeeze. I could think of no greater justice for the commercial paper-rigging shorts!!! (Glad to see JPM hammered today.) It looks like the specs are not quite as accommodating for the commercials as they have been in the past. In this last consolidation in silver, the contracts have now moved to stronger hands that won’t be so easily intimidated by the commercials. They know the fundamentals of physical supply and demand unlike the commercials.
Now I’m just waiting for Big Daddy Deep Pockets to show up in the silver pits (gold too, but silver would be easy to corner). All we need to blow the silver market apart is someone with about a $billion to challenge the paper shorts…it could be Buffett, Gates, Soros, Saudi oil money, Russian oil money, China’s accumulation of commodities, or just good old investment demand due to a falling dollar. If the shorts want to call Big Daddy’s bluff, Big Daddy just pulls out the Big Bankroll and tells them where to deliver the metal…the COMEX is now empty! In today’s financial world a billion dollars is a drop in the bucket. Some of the big hedge funds could do the dirty all by themselves! I think there’s enough sharks in financial land to smell blood in the water. The paper shorts are cornered in silver with the price above $7.30. If the specs can keep pouring on the pressure, maybe we will get to see the commercials cover at a big loss and force the market higher. The big fly in the ointment for the commercials is the deterioration of the U.S. dollar. It’s tough to bring gold and silver down with a falling dollar. Ha-Ha!!
Many precious metals investors have been looking for a near-term pullback in the metals, and then off to higher prices after the elections and after the commercials roll the specs over. Like I said earlier regarding stock prices, will the markets really make the timing that simple for us…I don’t think so! Look at it from someone like Mr. Soros, who would rather not see Mr. Bush for a second term. What a perfect time to cram precious metals prices higher signaling added weakness to the U.S. dollar.
This could be the beginning of the next big run higher for gold and silver, but we could also see the commercials win again with some help from a firming dollar. At times like this it is important to have a solid long-term investment strategy and a good short-term trading strategy to use varying degrees of leverage in your precious metal holdings.
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